Will we survive the junk rating?

[Spreadsheet Ranger]

SA is on a knife edge as it counts down the hours to the announcement tonight by ratings agency S&P Global Ratings of the country’s sovereign debt in a decision that is likely to have a profound effect on the economy and the political sphere.

 

What do you guys think about the rating, will be survive.

 

If we do get downgraded, how would that effect me and you?

[Bandit]

tandard & Poor’s (S&P) will announce its decision about South Africa’s sovereign credit rating today (Friday). The announcement is expected shortly after the local market closes between 18:00 and 19:00.

 

...

 

In an earlier interview with Bloomberg, finance minister Pravin Gordhan argued that government has taken sufficient steps to avoid a June downgrade.

 

Moneyweb asked a number of analysts what they expect S&P to announce. This is what they had to say.

 

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy/d-day-will-sp-decide/

 

Most seem to be thinking December rather than now. IIRC Simon Brown and Nerina Visser also reckons December.

[Purply]

I tend to agree that we will not be downgraded in June, but rather in December, however the December outcome is very much dependent on how the elections go in August and whether the country can get rid of Zuma before then.

[Bandit]

Agreed. Will give ANC "firepower" though to say "hey look at us, we averted junk status"

[Purply]

Well they got us into this mess, so they better get us out, or else the people will hopefully get them out.

[padjakkels]

And we are actually in rescission... if one see what is going on with businesses and people paying back debt....

[Purply]

Take a look at the USA, they also growing at below 1 percent this year, so surely we can't be downgraded because of slow growth.

 

Secondly, they will probably end up with Trump as their next president, so once again, we shouldn't be punished for having Zuma.

 

Otherwise it's double standards

[Bandit]

Not so sure about Trump's chanced after Hilary went all Iron Lady on him.

 

They did a study of countries that were downgraded to junk in recent times and found they all went into recession afterwards which took them about two years to recover from.

 

As that analyst from Standard Bank said, this downgrade might just be the thing that finally pushes us into recession.

[Spreadsheet Ranger]

Well the ZAR just spiked massively into the positive.

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=ZAR

 

I think the US probably did something bad and the USD took hit and the ZAR just remained the same?

 

[Purply]

US Jobs Data came in badly, lowest since September 2010 apparently.

[Spreadsheet Ranger]

ahhh okey yes, that definitely explains it.

[Bandit]

Reports coming in that we survived S&P's rating decision.

 

Sent from my LG-V490 using Tapatalk

[Spreadsheet Ranger]

Where can I watch it?

 

Omg I do not want to miss it.

---

http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2016/06/03/SA-wins-reprieve-as-junk-status-is-averted-%E2%80%93-for-now

---

http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2016/06/03/SA-wins-reprieve-as-junk-status-is-averted-%E2%80%93-for-now

[Purply]

" Fitch affirms South Africa's credit rating, keeps stable outlook"

 

Guess we wait for December now

[Spreadsheet Ranger]

See the ZAR took a massive drop @ 14.8 now

 

too scared to look at my DBx

[Noobly]

Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded South Africa's investment grade to #Junk

[Fiddle]

Well now that we are officially junk i suppose the question we need to ask is how long will we remain junk? 

 

I would presume that any investing would need to be done with a 5 to 10 year junk status consideration?

[Outlook]

Well now that we are officially junk i suppose the question we need to ask is how long will we remain junk? 

 

I would presume that any investing would need to be done with a 5 to 10 year junk status consideration?

 

Such a sad state of affairs now. On the one side we want to believe this will not be the case with us, we are unique etc. However, reality is we are in for a tough 7 years to come imo.

[Dwaine van Vuuren]

You can't do anything to change the government. Other than emigrating you can try capitalize on junk status. Bitcoin investing is one strategy as is Rand/$ plays on the JSE.

 

With or without junk the R will get oversold just as surely as it will get overbought. At these extremes R/$ JSE plays can be profitable.

 

One strategy my team uses you can see here http://www.sharenet.co.za/views/SA-TOP40-Offshore-Exposure-Revealed/6da26db0ba616877a456cd59bdde4789

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using the Platinum Wealth mobile app