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Spreadsheet Ranger

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Everything posted by Spreadsheet Ranger

  1. Rand crashes through R19/$ and is down more than 18% in the past month. SA was dealt another blow late on Friday when Fitch Ratings downgraded the country further into junk, just a week after Moody’s Investors Service stripped it of its last remaining investment grade. The rand extended its losses, crashing through R19/$. Fitch said it had cut SA one notch to BB from BB+ because the country lacked a “clear path towards” stabilising its debt position, a situation that would be worsened by the effect of the Covid-19 shock on economic growth and public finances. It maintained a negative outlook, meaning the next move is more likely to be further down the junk scale, because it saw “the prospect of further significant upside pressure on government debt and additional downside risks associated with the global shock”. The Fitch move came at the end of a difficult week for markets, with general volatility worsened by concern that SA’s credit-rating downgrade by Moody’s would lead to an exodus of funds, increasing government’s borrowing costs at a time when a shrinking economy will decimate its tax collection. While the Fitch move may be seen as less important than that of Moody’s, which put SA into junk with all three major companies and on course to fall out of key indices such as the FTSE World Government Bond Index, it reinforces negative sentiment towards an economy that slipped into recession even before the coronavirus outbreak. Like Moody’s, Fitch was pessimistic that the government would be able to renegotiate its three-year wage deal with public-sector unions, on which the numbers in the February budget were premised. The company also said that a new wage deal in 2021 was also “unlikely to result in the projected savings”. The rand weakened 2.84% to R19/$ at 6.27pm, down 7.28% for the week and 18.58% over the past month. Fitch said it expected the consolidated fiscal deficit to surge to 11.5% of GDP in 2020/21, which is more than the 8.5% predicted by Moody’s last week. Government debt, including that owed by municipalities, as proportion of GDP will jump to 80.2% in 2021/22, “well above the 2019 BB category median of 46.5%”. In his reaction, finance minister Tito Mboweni acknowledged that noninvestment grade ratings have undesirable implications for the whole economy. “To assure all South Africans, government is seized with addressing and minimising the impact of Covid-19, implementing measures to improve economic growth and setting government finances on a sustainable trajectory,” he said. Source: https://www.businesslive.co.za/
  2. South Africa’s Moody’s reprieve is over. The rating agency, the last to rate the country investment grade, has cut South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to junk in line with economists’ forecast. This comes as the country’s recession deepened by the impact of COVID-19 frustrates its economic reform efforts and stifles its plans to reduce government debt. The action will result in South Africa’s expulsion from the World Government Bond Index (WGBI), as a consequence those funds tracking this index as a benchmark will become forced sellers. Analysts have warned that the magnitude of this forced selling could be as high as $8 billion (R141 billion at R17.64 exchange rate). https://www.cnbcafrica.com/insights/sa-downgrade/2020/03/27/moodys-downgrades-sa-to-junk/
  3. The prime minister has mild symptoms and will self-isolate in Downing Street, but will continue to take charge of the government’s handling of the crisis. He posted a video on Friday morning on Twitter saying he has a temperature and a persistent cough. “I am working from home, I’m self isolating, and that’s entirely the right thing to do,” he said. “But be in no doubt that I can continue… to communicate with all my top team and lead the national fightback against coronavirus.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-tests-positive-for-coronavirus
  4. Not looking good so far with SASOL in there.
  5. If you have R500 laying around - there are worst ways you could spend that vs getting a little bit exposure to Bitcoin/Ethereum at the moment... These levels are rare, if you were on the sideline since crypto became mainstream, now is not a terrible time to get involved if you wanted to. Note: You will lose that R500 <= so make sure you can afford to lose it.
  6. What exactly is the reason for the current free fall in the SASOL share price? https://www.moneyweb.co.za/tools-and-data/click-a-company/SOL/ Sasol's return over the last: 7 days -72.66% 30 days -78.09% 90 days -80.24% 6 months -81.08% 1 year -87.54% 3 Years -85.64% 5 years -86.85 to date (12 March 2020 2:30PM)
  7. Figured I might as well carve this thread in stone.
  8. I think we need a thread called 'the 2020 financial crisis' This is shaping up to be something...
  9. The first case of #coronavirus has been confirmed in South Africa. https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/health/2020-03-05-sa-confirms-first-coronavirus-case/
  10. I have been neglecting my TFSA (it's like my money is just not going as far anymore) in 2017/18 it was easy to put away the monthly contributions, but 2019/2020 expenses just piled up.
  11. @SaurusDNA this is also a really nice website that tracks the corona virus (covid-19) in real time. What I like about it is there is only one 'pin' in the country and that contains all the info. In other words generally really a clean layout. https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html
  12. Was literally just thinking of creating a thread on this as this seems to be real now.
  13. This is probably the most pro-business ANC budget I have ever seen.
  14. Time for that RA question again. I see Justonelap pushing the OUTvest one, currently set on 10x because that was said to be the best one, now I am all confused again. Additional reading for new members:
  15. In simple terms, it's a forum where people can ask financial questions and others do their best to answer them for you.
  16. Eskom announced stage 2 loadshedding today (December 6) until tomorrow. Fun.
  17. Was thinking, it can show you the exact amount you need to pay this month and it allows you to "mark" that the payment have been made. Some way to just manage the process.
  18. Here is the Black Friday deals for HiFi corp - very good TV specials https://www.hificorp.co.za/black-friday-2019-sales-catalogue?utm_source=PlatinumWealth&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=BlackFriday2019
  19. I'm in I think I will do the multiplier 2 as well with base value of R200 So also aiming for R31 200 Is someone going to write us a excel sheet?
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