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SaurusDNA

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Everything posted by SaurusDNA

  1. I'm still selling some of my over-diversified stocks and will use the money to buy a "World" ETF, probably in the coming week. Would you buy STXWDM or ASHGEQ? And why?
  2. Why do you have both SATRIX World and Sygnia World?
  3. SaurusDNA

    Hello

    Hi. I haven't properly introduced myself so I thought I'd say Hi. I live in Pretoria and work as a chemistry researcher and lecturer in Johannesburg, with particular emphasis on the pharmaceuticals sector and drug development (now) and industrial chemical research (previously). I'm 46 years old. I've been investing in the JSE (stocks) for several years and have fair experience in that regard. On the other hand, I'm completely new to ETFs and would like to learn more about these from this forum. I also play around with cryptocurrencies an bit, but I'm cautious in this regard, and draw profits from these regularly to invest in the JSE instead. Looking forward to being an active participant on this forum. :-)
  4. In the mining sector, my bet is on KIO... ;-) With regards to your other choice, BVT vs BID, I haven't really studied either, and I don't really know enough on either of them to comment.
  5. Yes, that's partly because rhodium is a side product of paladium mining. The two are always found in the same ore. Rhodium will invariably follow the paladium price to a large extent.
  6. Speaking of which, if you want to diversify your asset types, you might consider dropping KIO and doing an ETN (exchange-traded note) instead which is different in kind. If you buy SBAPD1, for example, it's actual physical paladium which Standard bank stores in a vault. Its performance is almost completely unaffected by JSE performance, but it is strongly linked to the Rand price and paladium demand. The increased demand for paladium comes because 90% of catalytic converters in petrol engines now use paladium. Diesel catalytic converters, which use platinum have failed international standards testing and the move is away from platinum and towards paladium. Hence, the drop in recent years in platinum and sudden growth in paladium. So if you're looking for an alternative to KIO, maybe consider an ETN instead:
  7. That's a matter of personal choice. KIO is quite volatile and has the potential to make big profits, especially in the shorter to medium term (3-5 years). KIO would be the Bitcoin in your portfoilio. Might make you rich, but might crash hard if the iron price drops. AT the moment, iron and paladium are the two metals in huge demand and should grow very fast, but that could change at any time. (See SBAPD1 as a paladium example - SBAPD1 is Standard bank's direct paladium ETN). My prediction is that these metals will continue to grow massively for three years at least. But that's just an educated "guess" of course, as is always the case in the stock market.
  8. Well yes. If you only chose the one best stock, you would get rich very very fast. Slightly less fast with two, because, by definition, number two has a lower return than number 1. And so on for each added stock. The reason why we diversify is because we are human and we make mistakes in picking stocks which aren't the best. But if you choose five stocks and four are above market average, you'll be way above market average. Statistically, the more stocks you have, the closer exponentially you are to the market average. Historical statistics show that at 10 stocks, the average professional investor is within 10 percent of the market average. At twenty stocks, the average professional investor is within 1 percent of the market average. So if that's the historical stats for professional investors, what about us mere mortals? That's why if you're planning to stay rich, ETFs are better than stocks. Stocks increase your volatility and help you get rich faster, but increase your risk. If you are not prepared to accept an increased risk, then ETFs are better than market average and the better choice. It's one of the two golden rules of investing: Rule 1: Buy low, sell high. Rule 2: To get rich, concentrate your portfolio. To stay rich, diversify your portfolio. It all depends what your goals are...
  9. Yeah, the point of stocks is that you only buy the absolute best ones ones that are much better than the market average, As soon as you go above 10, your #11 and #12 are, by definition not as good as your top five with regards to returns, and thereby will lower your returns percentage overall. More than ten and you may as well buy ETFs. As Steven Covey once remarked: "The enemy of the best is often the good."
  10. I'd bet you'll consistently get at least 20-25% p.a. with that portfolio. Maybe more...
  11. Looks awesome! If that were an ETF made up of those stocks, I'd invest in it! :-)
  12. I like ClearScore. It's free and you get your credit record/score every month - not once a year like the others.
  13. And here's the Sirius/Redefine Comparison: In every aspect you can think of, Sirius is better than Redefine - Past performance - Sirius. Global exposure - Sirius. Potential for expansion - Sirius. In my opinion, it's the best real estate option on the JSE at the moment. Sirius South Africa (JSE:SRE) is the holding company for the London based Sirius which has eight years of fantastic growth...
  14. Here's a comparison between Clicks and Shoprite and Woolworths. The downwards trend in Woolworths that started thee years ago coincides exactly with the introduction of international competitors in the clothing department, especially H&M. At the moment, I don't think Woolworths has any real strategy to combat the competition, and I don't see it turning around soon. Definitely not in the next three years. I think buying Woolworths now would be a mistake. The Shoprite vs Clicks graph shows that Clicks is outperforming Shoprite at the moment, but the choice of Clicks vs Shoprite should depend on how long you think Clicks can continue this run. The biggest risk to clicks is competition from Dis-Chem, I think, whereas Shoprite doesn't have this problem and as the cheapest consumer staples store, will sky-rocket if the economy takes a turn for the worse. I have both Clicks and Dis-chem to counter the competition risk to Clicks, but then I have 10 stocks so I already have enough diversification. And here's some interesting bedtime reading: https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/dis-chem-vs-clicks/ I'd buy Shoprite as well, but then I'd have three in that sector and that's just too much concentration in one sector.
  15. From your shortlist, I would say Naspers and Discovery are obvious choices. If I had only four stock, these two would form two of them. I disagree with your Woolworths choice. Woolworths has been doing badly the last couple of years and I'm not sure I'm not too confident it will recover well in the short/medium term. The news article called "Buy these stocks if you love high dividends" that is posted on the 2018 stocks thread is an old Forbes article from 2015 that has been recycled for several years by finance journalists and has turned out to be false. The new international clothing stores like H&M are hammering Woolworths in the clothing department and I only see this getting worse. I would seriously consider Shoprite (SHP) or Clicks (CLS) as alternatives to WHL. Also, if you're only doing less than six or seven stocks, I wouldn't do both WHL and SHP because they're in the same sector and you may not be well enough diversified. If it was me, I'd do all SHP rather than the WHL and SHP combination and then do another stock in a different sector. I've actually been toying with buying Shoprite for a while now. Shoprite has huge potential and it's a solid stock. I may regret my decision not to buy, but I believe Clicks will outperform SHP in the long run, so I went for Clicks instead. But it's 50/50 and I as I said, I may regret not doing Shoprite instead of Clicks. It's a matter of personal choice and I can't say one is better than the other. Shoprite certainly is a solid choice. In that sector, Dis-Chem (DSY) is also a new stock on the market with enormous potential, but it's new, and doesn't have a track record yet, so I would only go for this one if you have a few more stocks than four and are looking for a higher risk with massive potential. With the real estate choice, I think Sirius (SRE) is a much, much better choice than Redefine (RDF) in the real estate sector. It's not that Redefine is bad, but rather that Sirius (SRE) just has much more potential and has consistently outperformed Redefine since it was listed three years ago. Also, Sirius is Europe-based and will grow if the rand drops, so it's a good rand-drop hedge as well as being a great property stock. If I were you, I'd seriously look into Sirius (SRE) as an alternative to Redefine for the real-estate sector choice. I'd also consider at least one stock in the mining or basic materials sector to create diversity, as mining stocks are largely unaffected by political factors, and are more resilient in turbulent political times. As far as solid stocks in the Materials sector, Kumba Iron Ore and Exxaro both look promising in this sector. Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) has had two solid years of exceptional growth and is increasing exponentially. If you're looking for higher risk in Basic Materials sector, PPC also has a good turnaround strategy and has just completed building a massive limestone quarry in the Congo. It has a 100% Buy consensus on WSJ. Something to consider - massive potential, but risky. With less than 10 stocks, I'd do KIO rather than PPC. Then, what about the financial sector? There are a lot of good choices in this sector too. Capitec and PSG are solid options in this sector. As far as diversification across different sectors go, and taking your preferences into account. I would do something like: Consumer staples: Shoprite (SHP) Healthcare: Discovery (DSY) Communications: Naspers (NPN) Real Estate: Sirius (SRE) Financials: Capitec (CPI) Materials: Kumba Iron Ore (KIO)
  16. So I took the advice on this thread to heart, bit the bullet and finally decided to do a major reshuffling of my over-diversified portfolio. During this week I reduced my number of ETFs to 7 and reduced my number of stocks to 10. It's mentally hard to sell a stock or ETF even if you know it's the right thing to do. I looked at NFEMOM but it's too close to my stocks profile, so my new profile looks like this: ETFs (45% of total investment) Local: STXIND 7.5% STXQUA 7.5% CTOP50 15% Global: STXEMG 15% SYG4IR 15% SYGWD 30% GLPROP 10% Stocks (40% of total investment) CLS 10% (Clicks) CPI 10% (Capitec) DCP 10% (Dis-Chem) DSY 10% (Discovery) ELI 10% (Ellies) KIO 10% (Kumba Iron Ore) NPN 10% (Naspers) PPC 10% (PPC Cement) SRE 10% (Sirius Real Estate) SDO 10% (Stadio) Commodities (5% of total investment) Paladium 100% (Through SBAPD1) Cryptocurrencies (10% of total investment) Bitcoin 50% Ethereum 50% I'm very happy with my new portfolio and really hoping it does well... :-)
  17. Yeah, I don't understand Shoprite. What caused the massive drop? Yesterday every single stock I had except for Clicks went bright red, but Shoprite seems to have been hit harder than anyone else. I was going to buy my first Shoprite last month. So glad I didn't! My regret of yesterday was that I cashed out most of my Bitcoin last month to buy Ethereum. Up 47% yesterday! And Ethereum is struggling at the moment because most exchanges (inluding Luno's Ethereum) have collapsed because of the Ethereum CryptoKitties craze. Strange world we live in...
  18. I'm just wondering how far Naspers will fall.
  19. I'm still waiting for it to be loaded on the TFSA...
  20. If you're looking for a wildcard and have a few rand to spare, my tip would be Ellies. Its turnaround strategy is starting to pay off and I think they might just announce a profit for the first time in a few years. If they do, I see Ellies easily reaching 100 by the end of 2018 (41 at close today). Of course, if they make a loss again, it will probably stay flat all year (although I don't see them dropping because their financials have improved consistently over three terms already). I've posted pics of its 6 months performance and income below:
  21. Thanks! Okay, let's try again... I was saying that I think Ellies might just turn a profit this quarter for the first time in a long time:
  22. I did a Control-C / Control-V copy and paste.
  23. Did the media coverage get axed in the end?
  24. What happened to my post? And why can't I edit it? New to this forum teething problems I suppose...
  25. I think the might just turn a profit this year for the first time in a long time:
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