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SaurusDNA

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SaurusDNA last won the day on January 11

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About SaurusDNA

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  1. SaurusDNA

    What property ETF to buy?

    Here's an excellent series of reviews on each of the property ETFs if you want some bedtime reading: Property ETF Series Part 1: CoreShares Proptrax SAPY Property ETF Series Part 2: CoreShares Proptrax Ten Property ETF Series Part 3: CoreShares S&P Global Property Property ETF Series Part 4: Satrix Property Property ETF Series Part 5: STANLIB SA Property ETF Property ETF Series Part 6: Sygnia Itrix Global Property ETF Note though that the long-term historic yields are not really applicable at the moment since the current yields have more than doubled in recent times, making property ETFs extremely attractive at the moment.
  2. SaurusDNA

    JSE Stock picks for 2019

    That's a good list. I particularly like CML and SHP for 2019. For community picks - I'd like to add Dis-Chem (JSE:DCP) and Discovery (JSE:DSY) to the list.
  3. SaurusDNA

    What property ETF to buy?

    Global property returns are always significantly less than local property returns (see table below). Since property ETFs are supposed to primarily produce income, I'd automatically remove GLPROP and SYGP from the list (these two I'd add if you specifically want diversification in the global section of your portfolio, but as an income earner main property ETF, the returns on these two aren't great compared to local property, even taking into account the average annual 4% Rand depreciation. ie. even with the 4% annual drop in the Rand taken into account, these indices consistently perform at roughly 3% lower than local property ETFs. I personally don't like PTXSPY and STPROP because these are uncapped and are heavily weighted in favour of three companies - they each have 50% of the total ETF in just Growthpoint, Redefine and Nepi Rockcastle. That being said, PTXSPY was the best performer of the six for the past year in terms of yield, but was the worst performer in terms of growth, due to the higher weighting of the big three. STXPRO and PTXTEN are both capped at 10% in any one company, which is a major plus in my opinion. The difference between STXPRO and PTXTEN is that PTXTEN is made up of the top 10 companies, each making up 10% of the ETF (equally weighted). On the other hand, STXPRO is made up of 15 companies at the moment, weighted by market capitalization, with a maximum of 10% in any one company. The difference in performance in earnings yield from PTXTEN is roughly 2% higher than from STXPRO. For the past year, the distribution yield from PTXTEN was 8.57%, whereas from STXPRO, it was 6.45%. This extra 2% makes a huge difference, and more than offsets the higher TER. The current income yields for the six you mentioned are as follows: PTXSPY: 9.00% PTXTEN: 8.57% STPROP: 8.45% STXPRO: 6.45% GLPROP: 2.76% SYGP: 1.99% The growth from the four is pretty similar (graph below), so I'd say you should choose using yields and risk as the criteria for your choice. In respect of yields, PTXSPY, PTXTEN and STPROP are pretty similar, with PTXSPY taking a slight lead. However, PTXTEN is less risky, being capped at 10% in any one company, whereas in the other two, you're the the mercy of the big three. For me, risk management is more important than the tiny extra percentage from PTXSPY, so my personal choice is PTXTEN. But in all fairness, all four of the local ETFs are pretty great and boils down to personal preference - performance vs appetite for risk.
  4. SaurusDNA

    My investment strategy for 2019

    My Reasons for my strategy: Local vs global: First, my thoughts on local vs global ETFs. For the last 20 odd-years, the Rand has averaged a depreciation against the Dollar of roughly -4% per year. The S&P500 has had roughly 6.8% growth, thus giving a total return of roughly 11% (including Rand effects) by investing offshore. The JSE, on the other hand, has performed at over 15% per annum for this period. Global returns are generally lower than local returns because inflation is lower globally than in RSA. Thus, even with the dropping Rand, local returns historically still trump global returns in the long run. That's why I'm happy with a 50%/50% split in global vs local ETFs. My ETFs - the good and the bad: CTOP50: The JSE has never been cheaper. It's P/E is good enough even to start being attractive to foreign investors. Also, I love that 10% cap in any one company. This ETF is a must. DIVTRX: If the bear market continues, high-dividend shares perform better. That's why I'm holding on to this one for now, but eventually (after the market starts to recover), I may sell this and buy CTOP50 with this money. PTXTEN: Different asset class - not correlated to the JSE. Property always does well in the long tern and is at a 52-week low. A steal at this price. STXQUA: I just love the companies in this ETF - such attractive fundamentals. I own this one simply because I believe in the companies that this ETF represents. ASHGEQ: Diversified global. Core ETF. GLODIV: A smart-beta ETF - its methodology may outperform the global all-share index in the long run, so a competitor for ASHGEQ. GLPROP: Global property. I'm not too sure about this one, as global property returns are not generally as good as local ones, even with the extra 4% per annum Rand depreciation. I may sell this one eventually. For now, though, with the uncertainty in the market, this is just to have a different asset class. STXEMG: Highest potential for growth over 25 years. Emerging markets fluctuate wildly but always outperform developed markets in the very long term. SYG4IR: I had to have some Tech shares, but I already have too much in the USA through my other ETFs, Thus, this gives my exposure to the newest and most exciting tech in Asia. If I didn't have this I would replace it with STXNDQ, but I just don't want too much USA at the moment. The USA has had it's longest bull market in history. How long can it continue? It might, but I prefer to be diversified. My shares - why I own/will continue to buy these ones: CML: Dividends of almost 10% per annum - that's better than cash even before growth! My favourite stock pick for 2019 at the moment. CPI: Continues to remain strong, even in the terrible 2018. DCP: Tough choice between either Dis-Chem or Clicks. But I didn't want two in the same sector, since the two are very well correlated. I just feel that since Dis-Chem is new and Clicks is already well established, Dis-Chem has more potential for growth between the two. DSY: Historically rock solid, and with Discovery Bank on the way, it looks even more attractive than its already dazzling history. L4L: Still holding on to the belief that this one will take off one day. A bit of a risk, but it may pay off. MRP: Had a bit of a dip, but recovering nicely. Cheap clothes of reasonable quality must do well in the long run. And with its competitors in the clothing department losing the plot (I'm thinking Woolworth and Edgars here), it just has to go up. SHP: The poor performance of this stock has been due to negative inflation of the food products on its shelf (the average prices of its shelf actually dropped in 2018), thus dropping its turnover (and profit). As food inflation is expected to rise in 2019 (also with drought predicted again) this should reverse the losses and lead to considerable gains. This share is also very cheap at the moment.
  5. SaurusDNA

    My investment strategy for 2019

    So, this is what I'm going to do in 2019: My Tax free investment portfolio for 2019: I'm going to continue to add R2750 monthly to my TFIA. I currently have the following portfolio, and will continue in the same proportions: Local ETFs (50%): CTOP50 15% DIVTRX 10% PTXTEN 15% STXQUA 10% Global ETFs (50%): ASHGEQ 10% GLODIV 10% GLPROP 10% STXEMG 10% SYG4IR 10% My stocks for 2019: All extra monthly money above my TFIA, I usually put into stocks. I will continue doing so in the following stocks: CML (Coronation) 14.3% CPI (Capitec) 14.3% DCP (Dis-Chem) 14.3% DSY (Discovery) 14.3% L4L (Long for Life) 14.3% MRP (Mr. Price) 14.3% SHP (Shoprite) 14.3%
  6. SaurusDNA

    ETF Portfolio advice

    Investing is very different to trading. Selling and buying long-term investments is not generally considered a good idea - the costs of buying and selling are high, taxes come into effect when selling, and timing the market is near impossible. If, like me, you also want to take advantage of the short-term movements in the market, better to open a separate trading account for that purpose and keep your long-term investments as buy-and-hold. As the age old long-term investment advice goes: "It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market." My strategy to maximize gains from shorter-term movements (in my long-term investments) is to plan at the beginning of the year what I'm going to invest for the year. Then, each month, I buy what is cheap and then just hold forever. So, if the rand is strong, I buy my global ETFs, so that when the Rand weakens, I get further gains from the exchange rate. When the Rand is weak, I buy my local ETFs. Similarly, I buy my ETFs when they are at a low. But I never sell!!! For example, I bought all my 2019 PTXTENs already since it is at a 52 week low. NB: Note, however, that this strategy works for ETFs that are intended for long term investment, where the ETF is diversified. It does not work for single stocks, since a 52-week low in stocks may indicate weak financials or other reason. Buying the low in the long term is only really suitable for ETFs or unit trusts, not for single stocks!!!
  7. SaurusDNA

    ETF Portfolio advice

    Hi e4et That's a pretty solid core portfolio. A few thoughts though... Your 55% global ETFs, I'd keep exactly in the percentages they're in - 40% world and 15% US feels well diversified. No criticism here. Your local ratios might do with a little tweaking in my opinion though. In a bull market, momentum shares thrive (like Satrix Top 40, SWIX Top 40 and CTOP50). In a bear market such as we had in 2018, value/quality shares do better (like Satrix Divi and STXQUA). This is why your Divi ETF is doing much better (or much less badly, to be precise) than your other ETFs (that's of course putting aside the World ETF which is up because of the weak Rand). However, when the JSE starts going up again, you may miss out on the rapid growth that momentum shares usually experience. In my opinion, now would be the ideal time to even out your local shares ratio and go half value (Satrix Divi (STXDIV)) and half momentum (like Coreshares top 50 (CTOP50)), since momentum ETFs are really cheap at the moment. My biggest concern is that SWIX T40 is 28% Naspers at the moment and that percentage is getting bigger and bigger. With the uncertainty in Tencent at the moment, the future of Naspers is unclear. Fortunately you only have 15% in SWIX T40 at the moment, but I wouldn't invest more in SWIX if I could avoid it. What I feel you should have instead of SWIX top 40 is a well rounded local core momentum ETF that doesn't have excessive Naspers exposure. Due to your already high exposure in Naspers, I'd go for the Coreshares top 50 ETF (CTOP50) as it is capped at 10% in any one company, limiting further exposure to Naspers. If it were me, I'd keep your current portfolio as it is and use the 3k to buy CTOP50. After that, I wouldn't buy more SWIX T40 (rather continue buying CTOP50) but maybe keep the SWIX anyway as it is a small enough percentage of your portfolio to warrant the risk and it may shine if Naspers recovers. Then in the long run, try and get your portfolio to something like: Local (45%): CTOP50: 20% STXDIV: 20% SWIX Top 40: 5% Global (55%): Sygnia MSCI US: 15% Sygnia MSCI World: 40% In summary, the only real long term changes I'd make is to eventually move away from the SWIX Top 40 and replace this with a capped local core ETF like CTOP50 (which is much better balanced and much safer), and then drop your Satrix Divi to only half of your local exposure.
  8. SaurusDNA

    My experience with Takealot

    I've been using Takealot for years and never had a problem with them. I always use delivery and their delivery service is excellent. They always send an sms to say exactly which day wish to come and then the courier phones you to find out what time you'll be home. Delivery is always with plus or minus one hour of the agreed-upon time. Plus, their online tracking system is excellent. For delivery, I'd give them 10/10. Also, they're not fussy with returns or cancellations. Last month I accidentally bought an item that I already had and just before delivery, I noticed my mistake and wanted to cancel the item. I called their helpline and they cancelled the order immediately and without question and credited my account with the amount.
  9. SaurusDNA

    Who has RSA Retail Savings Bonds?

    PTXTEN is looking extremely attractive at the moment. With an 8.61% dividend yield for the past year (probably will be over 10% next year now that the price per units has dropped so much this year), this means you'll be scoring at least a 10% return on this ETF even if the price stays flat. If the market recovers and we get double digit growth again next year, it's possible we might even be getting a 25% - 30% return on this ETF next year. I've bought quite a bit of PTXTEN in the past two months. Also look at bond ETFs, which give you more flexibility than a two year fixed bond. The NFGOVI bond ETF in particular has done well this year with a 7.61% growth so far. But as long as PTXTEN doesn't drop further, its dividends are still better. Of course, there's also the chance it will continue to drop, whereas bonds or bond ETFs are a safe bet.
  10. SaurusDNA

    ETF Portfolio advice

    Only new deposits from outside the account to inside the account contribute towards the limit. Anything that happens within the account doesn't count towards the 33K limit. This means you can reinvest dividends, buy and sell ETFs as you wish within the account - change back and forth between Cash and ETFs etc, as long as you don't withdraw them from the account. None of these affect the limit. So basically, it's only brand new deposits into the account from outside the account that contribute to the limit.
  11. SaurusDNA

    ETF Portfolio advice

    I would wait. The market is at a 52 week low and INDI, for example, is down 25%. I'd hang on to what I have for now, and start balancing it out by only buying those that you have too little of.
  12. SaurusDNA

    ETF Portfolio advice

    Hi Taurus and welcome to the forum. Disclaimer - I'm not a financial adviser - just a forum member with a few years of self-study and experience who invests and trades on the JSE, and the following discussion is based merely on my own observations and opinions. Yes, you have too many ETFs. It's not so much the number though, but rather that you have some that track exactly the same index/companies which duplicates your costs and skews your perceived exposure. A few observations: 1. A massive chunk of your investment is indirectly invested in a single company - namely Naspers. The Satrix Indi, Top 40 and RAFI are basically all investing in exactly the same few companies, but in differing percentages. The Indi is largely Naspers, which has historically performed exceptionally well, but now that the fundamentals of TenCent (of which Naspers owns 30%) has changed, the future may not be anywhere as near as attractive. I'd definitely be nervous with such a big percentage of my portfolio in Indi (plus, it's never a good idea to have such a big chunk of a portfolio in a single sector). If it were me, I'd combine all three of these into Satrix 40. 2. The Satrix S&P 500 and the Sygnia Itrix MSCI World are pretty much the same thing with a tiny bit of extra emerging market exposure in the MSCI world ETF. This is duplication and skews your exposure. 3. If you're looking for diversification in property, I'd go at least 20% property (10% local property (PTXTEN) and 10% offshore property (GLPROP)), since it's a different asset class and doesn't necessarily correlate to stocks. If the stock market crashes, these may very well shine. In fact, in the long term, property has always done well. 4. Ashburton Government bonds - a different asset class which is good for diversification but in the long run doesn't do as well as equities. Having these in your portfolio depends on your risk tolerance - these are much safer than stocks, but underperform in the long run (longer than 10 years). If you want diversification with bonds, go at least 10% bonds. Otherwise, it just doesn't add any value to your portfolio, because at 2% of your portfolio, the purpose of this asset class (risk reduction) simply isn't significant and you may as well put it in something higher risk with better potential returns. 5. Sygnia Japan and Eurostoxx: These are already covered in MSCI world. The combination of S&P500, Japan and Euro is pretty much what MSCI world has done for you anyway - you're just duplicating the Sygnia MSCI world ETF and splitting it up into it's components. All you get by having all of these is more costs and a skewed sense of diversification. Why not just combine all of these into MSCI world? 6. Nasdaq and Sygnia 4IR: I personally like tech shares and I think these will do well. Personally, I'd buy more than your 2% in tech - maybe 5-10%. 7. Satrix Quality: I love this ETF. The companies in this portfolio are fantastic with amazing fundamentals. The dividends from this ETF are also extremely attractive. 8. Satrix Fini: This sector is already very well represented in the top 40. Just more exposure to the same thing. NB: Your current exposure to the local Top 40 is 68% of your portfolio (26.14% Indi + 20.32% T40 + 12.03% RAFI + 9.07% Fini, which all have the same companies, especially Naspers, which is more than 20% in your case) This is the whole point - you think you're diversifying, but you're not! If it were up to me, and you asked me to re-balance your portfolio using your selection of ETFs, I'd sell INDI, RAFI, FINI, S&P500, Japan, EuroStox, and combine a whole lot of your ETFs to buy: 60 % Core Shares (Local and Global): STX40 - 20% STXQUA - 10% SYGWD - 20% GLODIV - 10% 20% Property (Local and Global): PTXTEN - 10% GLPROP - 10% 10% High-risk but high potential tech shares: STXNDQ and/or SYG4IR - 10% 10% bonds (If your proposed investment period is less than 10 years) or better still, buy 10% in emerging markets (STXEMG) instead. ASHWGB - 10% (Alternatively, rather than bonds, I'd use this 10% to buy emerging markets in the form of STXEMG, which has exposure to China, Brics countries etc. - lots and lots of long term potential).
  13. SaurusDNA

    Discovery Bank Account

    Will it be listed separately or does it fall under DSY?
  14. SaurusDNA

    XBOX One vs Nintendo Switch

    My boys want to ask Santa for a gaming console for Christmas. One says they should ask for a Nintendo switch, but the other says they should ask for an XBOX one. They are currently 8 and 5 years old. Which is better and why?
  15. SaurusDNA

    Satrix Momentum ETF

    Yes, with stop losses and take profit, you can choose fixed or trailing, and set your limits as the stop losses/take profits trigger. You can also do a partial sell/buy if the trigger is hit. You can also choose between an alert or an action on a trigger. Here's the interface for a fixed stop. The trailing stop is similar, and also allows partial sales.
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