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SaurusDNA

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Everything posted by SaurusDNA

  1. I just recommended two books in a different thread, but I thought it might be a good idea to have a dedicated thread to discuss trading and investment books. I'll be back soon with book reviews on the ones I've read.
  2. I trade CFDs on the JSE but not Forex. Trading is not difficult, but it requires a fair amount of learning and training. If you're serious about getting started, I would highly recommend that you study/read two books in the following order: First study the book "How to make money on the stock exchange" by Ross Larter, which is a basic course in trading written by a South African for the South African stock exchange. This will give all the technical skills and knowledge you will need to get started. Then, when you're done with that one, read or listen to "Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas. This will teach you about the self-control, attitude and mindset that is essential in every successful trader. The first you should get the hard copy of, as it's technical and there are many pictures that are very important. The second is available as an audiobook on Audible, and for this one, the audiobook is fine as there are no pictures required to learn from this book. These two books will give you enough knowledge to trade successfully, and if you do what they say with regards to self-discipline and attitude, you'll do just fine. That's how I started, and I now consider myself a successful trader, as I have a steadily growing equity curve in my trading account.
  3. So finally I've decided to start a thread dedicated to Motus. Motus listed on 22 November 2018. They used to be part of the Imperial Group, but split last year. Motus is now the official importer of Hyundai, Kia, Renault and Mitsubishi in South Africa and include these dealerships. They also run Tempest and Europcar car hire. As a new company, it's still hard to find detailed info on them, so I thought the thread would be a good idea. Their official website is here: https://www.motuscorp.co.za/
  4. I only do CFDs for resources, because they're cyclic so long term doesn't make sense for me with resources. But I've had CFDs in Anglo American Platinum (AMS) for about 3-4 months now. Best return I've ever made on a trade!
  5. Yeah, day before yesterday was last day for trading (LDT) for the dividend payment so there has been the usual post-dividend sell-off yesterday and today. Hopefully it'll start climbing from tomorrow again.
  6. Yes, they only listed on 22 November. Still hard to find info.
  7. Here's the official JSE index codes (although Google Finance uses different ones): All share is J203 and the Top40 is J200.
  8. In my opinion, the Allan Gray Balanced fund is one of the best the market has to offer. Its performance has been nothing less than superb in that it has smashed the benchmark year after year after year: https://www.allangray.co.za/fund-pages/balanced-fund/
  9. I'm actively trading them now, but I'm also thinking about buying their shares too, but I don't feel I have enough info on them yet. Maybe a Motus thread is the way to go. Here's their performance graph since their listing on 22 November 2018:
  10. They're the Hyundai and Kia guys now, and include these dealerships. From the Rentals point of view, they run Tempest and Europcar. Here's their official website: https://www.motuscorp.co.za/
  11. They used to be part of the Imperial group, but then Imperial split, and Hyundai, Kia, Renault, Mitsubishi is now called Motus.
  12. While there is certainly merit to the argument that on average, in the long run, passive investments perform at least as well as, if not better, than actively managed investments, the funds in which Momentum has invested your money (ie. Allan Gray, Coronation, Investec etc) have had phenomenal performance since their inception, and they are certainly not just your average actively managed funds. These funds are among the best South Africa has to offer with returns beating the benchmark year after year. Also remember that offshore has its (important) cons as well as its merits. While offshore investments may serve as a Rand hedge, they simply cannot keep up with our inflation. Even with the annual average 4% drop in the Rand, the 2-4% growth typical of global growth, even when combined with Rand depreciation, does not usually beat South Africa's 6.5 - 8% inflation. South African markets do tend to perform a few percent higher than inflation though, and I'm pretty sure that if you look at your Momentum fund returns, you're probably close to 11% annual return over the past 10 years after the 2% costs have been deducted, even though the market has been flat. In every/any chosen period longer than 10 years (10-years, 15 years etc) South African investments have beaten the offshore average, even when compounded with Rand depreciation. I'm wary of moving too much money offshore. Consensus at the moment is that 30-40% of your money offshore presents the optimal risk to reward ratio. Also bear in mind that 30 -35% of your Momentum fund is already invested offshore. If it were me, I'd keep the bulk of the money with Momentum. Especially since you're 55, the actively managed approach, which switches between bonds, stocks and cash as the market fluctuates, decreases your risk significantly. The good thing about managed funds is that they limit the downside, while they may underperform passive investments slightly during strong bull markets. At 55, preserving your wealth is definitely more important than high-risk growth. So yes, I personally do believe that moving your Momentum investment to passive investments would be a mistake in your case. If it were me, I'd keep the R5.5M right where it is! (The extra R2M is only a quarter of your portfolio so it seems a reasonable amount to put in the higher risk passive funds as you have done.)
  13. Yes - you should have them already.
  14. Me too! I'm just waiting to see if they go up or down. I'm not keen on a long term investment in Multichoice (MCG) but it might be good for trading (either long or short) in the next few days as it may experience quite a bit of movement while the market decides. The CFDs have a reasonable gearing of roughly 6.5 times.
  15. Yes, my Naspers shares are down R1141 since this morning and my new Multichoice shares are worth R1092, so they've pretty much balanced each other out exactly.
  16. I agree. The returns on these have been worse than a simple savings account. I can't imagine the appeal or why anyone might consider buying these. At least with their Newfunds Traci 3 month ETF you know what you're going to get, and at almost zero risk. These have worse returns but with risk. I don't get it...
  17. Well, I got my 10 free Multichoice shares today (due to the unbundling of Multichoice from Naspers). Nice when shares just appear in your account out of the blue!
  18. That is a most interesting observation. I have posted up the graph of STXEMG vs the JSE All-share index below. The correlation is clear to see and the difference in growth between the two is 10%!
  19. I'm trying to figure out why the Motus (MTH) share price keeps dropping. Their "fair value" is considered to be around R95 per share, their fundamentals are good, a forward P/E of around 7 and an expected dividend yield of 4.2%. They are the sole importers of Hyundai, Kia, Renault, Mitsubishi with massive growth potential. They're currently only at R78 per share. They started out very well but the last months has seen them lose almost 30% in just over a month. ? Well, they're at the support level now, so I'm seriously hoping they don't drop any further... Any thoughts on their short to medium term future?
  20. I guess the annual limits of Tax free investment accounts will remain at R33000 for the third year in a row then... ?
  21. And don't forget tax-bracket creep! This one is the silent unnoticed killers that they've been doing for the past few years. I don't know how they're going to manage the Eskom issue - if they bail out Eskom, we get the final ratings downgrade to junk by Moody's. If they don't, Eskom will be bankrupt by April. Things that I think will be strategically omitted from the speech (but really hope he does address): Tax free investment account annual and lifetime limit increases. How they're going to fund free education. How they're going to fund the e-tolls issue.
  22. Coincidentally, Standard Bank actually published a research report on Discovery yesterday (19 February 2019). They give DSY a current SELL recommendation based on a spot valuation of R116 and a 12-month target price of R132.
  23. This whole discussion is academic, of course. Every person's financial situation is different and what suits one person may not suit another. I'm not so sure that I agree with you with regards to the pensions and RAs being all RSA though. Most pensions and RA plans have 30% directly offshore, and the 70% that is left is usually market capped, so your Naspers etc. weigh heavily with quite a lot of indirect offshore exposure, bringing the actual offshore exposure closer 50%.
  24. In light of the above, I have changed my target TFIA ETF ratios to be 60% local and 40% foreign indices and my new target TFIA portfolio looks as follows: LOCAL (60%): Local equities: CTOP50: 10% DIVTRX: 10% NFEMOM: 10% STXQUA: 10% Local property: PTXTEN: 20% FOREIGN (40%): Foreign equities: ASHGEQ: 7.5% GLODIV: 7.5% STXEMG: 7.5% SYG4IR: 7.5% Foreign property: GLPROP: 10%
  25. For a while now I've been asking the question: "What percentage of my TFIA ETFs should be in 'foreign' indices?" Some people will immediately say "Put everything in foreign indices - the Rand is going to collapse or South Africa is going to be downgraded to junk" etc. And yet, the experts will typically tell you to put only 30% to 40% in foreign ETFs and the rest in local indices. So I've done a ton of study to find out why and the results surprised me - so much so that I have now changed the desired weightings of my TFIA ETF portfolio to allocate a greater percentage to local ETFs. Here's the thing. On the one hand, the Rand depreciates on average by 4% per year against the Dollar, and has pretty much done so since the time of Adam and Eve. Therefore, by buying ETFs of foreign indices, you are 'guaranteed' a 4% gain on your investment due to the weakening Rand. Now, on the other hand, let's look at foreign growth and interest on bonds, for example, where a 3% above-inflation is considered a good investment. Let's take England as an example. With its inflation close to 0%, a 3% return on an English investment would be considered "good." So if you had invested in an "England ETF, you would, by way of illustration, get your 0% inflation plus 3% return plus your 4% due to Rand depreciation, a total return of 7%. However, locally, it is South Africa's high inflation that makes it ideal for investment, which at first may seem counter-intuitive. Interest-bearing investments such as bonds and preference shares may also typically return inflation plus 3% - so with our 6% inflation, that gives a total return of 9%. And the JSE does much better than just inflation plus 3%! The other countries (outside of emerging markets) just don't have our inflation and therefore don't have the growth that the JSE index does. This is also why emerging markets are expected to give higher returns than developed markets in the long term. Secondly, putting more than say 40% in foreign indices means you are no longer diversified in the sense that if the Rands strengthens significantly, your portfolio collapses (and historically, it is highly unlikely to average a drop of more than 4% per year). On the other hand, the JSE index is not affected by the Rand in the same way, so whether the Rand drops or climbs, you're still guaranteed your above inflation growth on your local index ETFs. So betting too much on foreign indices is, in essence, going for a higher risk, but with lower returns, the exact opposite of what we should be doing. Of the academic studies I've read, most put the optimal risk-to-reward ratio for investing at 60% local and 40% foreign ETFs, and often support this with models. But now I finally understand why my previous 50% : 50% local : foreign split was considered high risk.
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