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BitcoinZAR

Bitcoin halving in May 2020

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Posted (edited)

Today marks 422 days approximately until the next bitcoin 'halving', where the amount of bitcoin that is able to be mined every day is cut in half forever. The approximate date will be 24 May 2020.

 

After previous bitcoin booms and busts in the hype cycle the uptick in the price has started to show improvement around 500 days before the halving. We are past that point, so I am hoping that there will start to be a slow steady increase in price again like there has been before. Lets see if history will repeat itself once again.

 

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, and this time the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins approximately every 10min in May 2020. Usually there are guys who anticipate the increased demand and the price increase that responds to the demand, who buy in advance so that they can sell when the real frenzy starts at a great profit.

I would bet that if things go like they have gone in the past, people will buy up bitcoin leading up to the halving, and might even dump a bunch before the actual date, before other guys get a chance to do the same thing.

 

Lets see how it all plays out...The price of bitcoin on 28 March 2019: $4098 (according to coin market cap)

EDIT:

1399524427_bitcoinbubblecheatsheet.thumb.png.63acff6edea83b994867ab1f68b2a59f.png

Edited by BitcoinZAR
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An interesting post that predicts a bitcoin price of $55,000 after the 2020 halving: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25


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So it's a bit more, like one more year before this bubble burst at last! So many people I know put serious money into it without any real facts about it. Why it costs that much anyway still ? I just play on Forex in some ways, but never will invest in this. I always think it will fall to 0 someday.

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On 4/16/2019 at 12:53 PM, 1Bolt said:

So it's a bit more, like one more year before this bubble burst at last! So many people I know put serious money into it without any real facts about it. Why it costs that much anyway still ? I just play on Forex in some ways, but never will invest in this. I always think it will fall to 0 someday.

 

There is a hype cycle because the supply gets cut in half, and people who trade know this and make money off the fact that the supply will be decreasing.
Think about it....You know for a fact that in 4 years time there will be 50% less bitcoin being mined each year, and then 4 years later, again 50% less, going on and on forever. Even if there is no more demand than there is today, when you cut the supply in half, but keep the same demand, the price should surely go up a lot. People who trade bitcoin know this, and they start buying up bitcoin in advance, with the purpose of selling it later at a big profit. This causes the hype cycle to repeat itself over and over, with higher highs, and higher low prices too.

It costs so much, because there is so much demand for it. If nobody wanted it, the price would be zero, but everyone wants it, and the demand is reflected in the price.

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Some interesting stats and information.

1065647172_bitcoinpitch.thumb.png.c1eaf6ba18e0057cc80c60d259a711ce.png

A closer look at the way the bitcoin price is following the stock to flow model

 

1543529720_pathto1million.thumb.png.32343e128b7a545c32c2934789962ed9.png

 

A chart showing the bitcoin halving time periods and how the price has reacted in the past

 

1177882244_re-accumulationphase.thumb.png.907a64ebd033d2dedbcff9f3926dc593.png

 

Historical Bitcoin Prices in USD if you went back from today. Basically from todays price, if you have been in bitcoin for longer than 1 year, you are probably in profit. 2 years or longer, and the % profit starts to go up quite a bit:

 

2057833480_Screenshot_2019-05-19CoinDance.thumb.png.12eb2290d94157d3cffe49c88a805057.png


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It has been just over a month since this thread started.

It seems that the price has started to go up and is approx 46% up over the last 30 days.

Today (01 June 2019) the price is around $8500

 

787145481_Screenshot_2019-06-018564USDBTC.thumb.png.007e638231c039c8d651ba17da683cf0.png

 

You can see over the last month the trend is up, but there has been some big jumps and drops in price along the way. Anything can happen in bitcoinland, it might still tank horribly short term, but I still think mostly sideways to upwards for the rest of the year overall, possibly increasing in volatility closer to the halving


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