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BitcoinZAR

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Everything posted by BitcoinZAR

  1. Today is now +- 65 days before the 3rd bitcoin halving. The price has still been ranging mostly between $6k and $10k for most of 2019 as anticipated. Check out info on the halving ETA here: https://www.thehalvening.com/ Today the bitcoin price is $9118 When this thread was started in March 2019, the price was around $4000 so if you discount the volatility and sold now....that would be just over 100% gain in value since last year. There has of course been a couple of times when the price was much higher, and also lower. The bitcoin hashrate is continuing to climb. The hashrate is the amount of computing power that is required to create new bitcoins, and therefore the cost to make bitcoins is rising with the hashrate. When the amount of bitcoins that are mined each day is cut in half, then the cost of making these bitcoin is the same, but for half the amount, effectively doubling their price. The price will jump, and there are also those that think the hashrate will drop, as some miners will no longer be profitable, and will simply stop mining. In both the previous halving events, there was not much change immediately when the halving took place, with most of the price increase happening in the months following the halving, as you can see in this log chart of the bitcoin price below. If history repeats itself, which there is a pretty good probability of doing with bitcoin, then in the months following the next halving, there could be significant price increase in bitcoin. So far the bitcoin price is still following the predicted path as described in the stock to flow price model. If this model is true, then the price will be around 5 times what it is currently near the end of 2021....
  2. Bitcoin also seems to exhibit the characteristics of a veblen good at times. As the price increases, the demand increases along with it, its probably got a lot to do with FOMO by people who want to make money fast. If you have bitcoin, and are interested in profiting off the hype cycle, make sure to have your stop-loss orders set so that you can ride the price up, but sell the moment the momentum changes and the price drops.
  3. I wrote a new post about the 2020 halving this year for those who are interested. It explains more about the event. If you are interested in knowing more about it, you can read more here: https://www.bitcoinzar.co.za/2020-bitcoin-halving/
  4. The year is ending and the bitcoin halving is still approaching. Like previous halving event, the price did indeed start to show an improvement, and it has continued to range mostly between 6-10k for most of the year which is what I was expecting. With the halving event getting closer, I would expect some people to start front running the price up to the event, but the real 'chaos' and volatility to probably come in the months following. It all depends on how many people will try to use their knowledge of the halving as an advantage, to buy ahead of time. Today the price is about $7430 which is around a 98% increase in value from today's date one year ago. Currently sitting at about R114852 on ice3x.com exchange and R114224 on Luno. That is about a R10k price difference to the USD price, so there is some wiggle room for arbitrage, if you are buying on a US based exchange like Kraken and then selling on SA exchanges. I am still accumulating now that I am back from my travels in South America, and still believe that the real big price increases will be in the months following the halving event, which is now predicted to be on 14 May 2020. My "guestimate" is that IF there is another repeat of events like what has happened in the past halving event, the price change could improve again by 5 to 10 times what it is now, within the next 3 years. Of course, if you want to benefit, you should only use money you are prepared to risk, as bitcoin is extremely high risk....but potential high reward. So far the price is sticking close to where it is predicted to go if you are using the Stock to Flow model.
  5. Anyone in Cape Town or Jozi and fancy a beer and casual chat bout bitcoin? A couple of us are going to be at Tigers milk Century City, see the event here: Some people in JHB want to meetup too, so the next day there will be one at Hard Rock Cafe, Sandton, see the event here: Both events are totally casual as usual. We keep it old school like it used to be before corporates got involved.
  6. I have been playing around with this Kriptolink point of sale device, that kind of doubles as a bitcoin ATM. Its pretty cool, and a nice way to be able to get customers to pay you in bitcoin. You can use it to take payments, and also let customers use it to buy and sell bitcoin. I have been away, so didnt get a change to set it up until today, and so far I am liking it. I dont need a point of sale device, but I liked the idea of a portable bitcoin ATM. I have connected it to the API of my account on the ice3x.com exchange. A potential customer can choose to buy or sell bitcoin with me. If they buy, then they give me cash, and they scan their wallet with the device. Then using the price on ice3x plus my profit that I can adjust, they are charged a price for the amount of fiat they want to spend. After it goes through, my wallet send the bitcoin to theirs, I keep the cash, and the terminal market buys back the same bitcoin I sold on the the ice3x platform. So the bitcoin I sold is replaced, and I make a profit, and the customer gets their bitcoin for cash. If anyone is interested, I did a blog post on it a few months ago, you can read more about it here: https://www.bitcoinzar.co.za/kriptolink-bitcoin-atm-pos-terminal/ Oh yeah, this is a 100% local system. The guys behind it are South Africans Local is lekker!
  7. Bitcoin signals groups are a waste of time I think. If anyone actually could predict with certainty what the price would do short term, they would sure as hell not tell everyone else and destroy their advantage and reduce their own profit. They would shut the hell up, and make $$$. These signals groups cannot predict events that move the market violently one way or the other, same with TA and charts. No charts or TA / signals group is going to predict the next China ban, exchange hack, or ETF being approved news that moves the market. The only thing anyone can do, is look at the past, and come up with probabilities of what might happen....its like astrology for cryptocurrency. There are many probabilities, nobody is 100% certain on which one will be the one that happens.
  8. There has been some great arbitrage opportunities with all the volatility recently. I have done a few good trades between ice3x and luno to increase my bitcoin trading stash.
  9. Just checking in....the price today is $10300 odd...I still expect it to range sideways then go upwards as the halving gets closer, with the real price increases coming later in next year if history repeats itself. I think bitcoin is going to be an amazing hedge against the Rand in the coming months as it goes up in value. I will probably only check in here again at the end of the year, I am traveling again for a few months in South America, but will check in if the price starts mooning
  10. Update: Posting here since the price passed $10k today (22 June 2019) that is over 180% in the last 6 months. Of course the price could still go down....I still feel the price will range between $6k and $10k for the rest of the year....but now that $10 is breached, maybe I can raise the upper limit to $12k. The bigger picture is the long term price after the next halving event in May 2020. ETA is 21 May 2020, which is 334 days away. A lot can happen in that time, but I still feel it will be an upward trajectory. The months following the halving will be when the real exciting stuff happens... I wrote an update to my post on bitcoin investing here: https://www.bitcoinzar.co.za/easy-bitcoin-investment-in-south-africa/ It shows how dollar cost averaging can be an easy way to accumulate bitcoin over time, which can increase in value. One of the tools I used to demonstrate is available on this website: https://dcabtc.com/ It shows you how much value you could have made had you been dollar cost averaging already. Here is an example: "Wow! Buying $50 of Bitcoin every month for 3 years starting 3 years ago would have turned $1,800 into $7,684 (+326%)"
  11. I reckon if you want to diversify, rather have bitcoin, property, investments etc.. To me, diversifying into other cryptocurrencies is like diversifying your gold holdings by trading some of it for copper, tin, platinum etc. Yes the price of the others can go up, but they in a completely different league to bitcoin. Most of these other coins have massive supply, no real demand to match that massive supply in order to push up the price. Most of the altcoins go up in USD value because bitcoin goes up, and the also down when bitcoin goes down. They are pegged to the bitcoin price, since you use bitcoin to buy most of them. It is not often that they make massive gains in BTC value, although it did happen in 'alt season' in 2017. That time it was mainly due to the bitcoin bull run, combined with a bunch of shady ICOs being launched. There are a few of these websites like DCX operating in South Africa now, all pretty much doing the same thing. The problem I have with them is they show the gains in Rand or USD, and not in bitcoin. Most of the time, its better value to just hold bitcoin, and you would have lost value if you compare the gains made in value compared to that if you had just stayed in bitcoin. These websites have not been around long enough to prove themselves...but we have been around long enough holding bitcoin and altcoins to do the maths ourselves. I successfully turned my altcoins bitcoin value into 1/5 of what it would be if I had just held onto bitcoin instead....because I was diversifying lol. If I had just held bitcoin, I would have had less volatility, and be sitting with 5x the value right now. At lease DCX put a performance chart on their website, but without actual customer data, they are just using the past prices and working out the gains if a customer had used the service if it had existed back then. If you look at their performance to bitcoin, they only time you might have made more gains, is if you had invested more than 3 years ago. This is of course including the massive pump and dumps during the alt-season ICO rushes.... The thing to remember also is that these things work great when the market is going up. When the market is going down, its an ugly mess. At least with DCX I like that you can dump the lot to Rand....so if the market suddenly turns, you can exit quite easily. Another thing I like about DCX is that they are 66% bitcoin and only 33% altcoins, so they are not being as risky as some of the other companies also offering a similar service locally. As of today, here is a screenshot of the same coins DCX offer. The columns to look at would be the BTC ones (24hr vs BTC, 30 day change to BTC, and 1 year change to BTC) You can see that instead of holding bitcoin, if you had held that basked of coins, you would have lost value, and that shows in the DCX10 token performance pic above, from their website. I think the reason many of these companies are popping up now, is because there is a high chance of another bull run now, so there is a good chance many coins will pump in price along with bitcoin. In the next bull run, as usual, the biggest upside will be an altcoin with crazy risk. Bitcoin will produce the highest risk adjusted return, but it wont be the biggest upside as altcoins will always pump harder and fall harder. I think maybe companies like DCX are banking on one of the altcoins in the basket of cryptocurrencies being one of those altcoins that goes mental. Compared to holding Rand though, I would definitely choose bitcoin or something like DCX10 instead.
  12. Bitcoin has made strong returns....litecoin has done better (upcoming halving for litecoin soon.....), and ethereum has done bad. They all went up in USD value, but because they are pinned to bitcoin price, you need to look at the BTC price, not USD price. 1 year change to BTC they are all down, with LTC being the closest to outperforming bitcoin Look at the top 5 performance to BTC...
  13. It has been just over a month since this thread started. It seems that the price has started to go up and is approx 46% up over the last 30 days. Today (01 June 2019) the price is around $8500 You can see over the last month the trend is up, but there has been some big jumps and drops in price along the way. Anything can happen in bitcoinland, it might still tank horribly short term, but I still think mostly sideways to upwards for the rest of the year overall, possibly increasing in volatility closer to the halving
  14. I cant view it because its behind a paywall that I wont pay...but ja, I dont trust those guys one bit
  15. Some interesting stats and information. A closer look at the way the bitcoin price is following the stock to flow model A chart showing the bitcoin halving time periods and how the price has reacted in the past Historical Bitcoin Prices in USD if you went back from today. Basically from todays price, if you have been in bitcoin for longer than 1 year, you are probably in profit. 2 years or longer, and the % profit starts to go up quite a bit:
  16. I think we might have seen the bottom already ($3122?), and expect the price to range sideways for a while longer, moving over to a bull market. I guess maybe between about $6k and $10k for a few more months. I just keep adding to my stash.....I am permanently bullish at these price levels anyway. If the price goes down, I buy more, if it goes up, I just get less for the same money.
  17. There is a hype cycle because the supply gets cut in half, and people who trade know this and make money off the fact that the supply will be decreasing. Think about it....You know for a fact that in 4 years time there will be 50% less bitcoin being mined each year, and then 4 years later, again 50% less, going on and on forever. Even if there is no more demand than there is today, when you cut the supply in half, but keep the same demand, the price should surely go up a lot. People who trade bitcoin know this, and they start buying up bitcoin in advance, with the purpose of selling it later at a big profit. This causes the hype cycle to repeat itself over and over, with higher highs, and higher low prices too. It costs so much, because there is so much demand for it. If nobody wanted it, the price would be zero, but everyone wants it, and the demand is reflected in the price.
  18. I have ordered single units as replacements which came without having to pay extra duties. Buying bulk means you definitely have to pay the duties, and also the fee to the courier company to 'process' your order and delivery. I am out of stock of Ledger Nano S devices and most likely not ordering bulk again, unless I can make it worth while. Bulk orders are not priority to them, so they sometimes take months to arrive, while the price of bitcoin changes drastically during that time period, which means your profit can disappear completely. For the end user, its faster and cheaper to just order directly from Ledger now, especially since they added free shipping for small orders to South Africa, and you might not need to pay duties. Bulk orders you still need to pay for shipping, so that is additional cost for resellers too. The time, expenses, and possibility of losing money means its just better to refer customers to them directly.
  19. Right now its cheaper to just buy direct from Ledger than from any retailer in South Africa because you get free shipping.
  20. An interesting post that predicts a bitcoin price of $55,000 after the 2020 halving: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  21. Locally I prefer to use luno and iceCUBED. Internationally I use Bittrex, Binance, Bitstamp, Cex.io, Kucoin among a bunch of others I am registered on
  22. Today marks 422 days approximately until the next bitcoin 'halving', where the amount of bitcoin that is able to be mined every day is cut in half forever. The approximate date will be 24 May 2020. After previous bitcoin booms and busts in the hype cycle the uptick in the price has started to show improvement around 500 days before the halving. We are past that point, so I am hoping that there will start to be a slow steady increase in price again like there has been before. Lets see if history will repeat itself once again. The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, and this time the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins approximately every 10min in May 2020. Usually there are guys who anticipate the increased demand and the price increase that responds to the demand, who buy in advance so that they can sell when the real frenzy starts at a great profit. I would bet that if things go like they have gone in the past, people will buy up bitcoin leading up to the halving, and might even dump a bunch before the actual date, before other guys get a chance to do the same thing. Lets see how it all plays out...The price of bitcoin on 28 March 2019: $4098 (according to coin market cap) EDIT:
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