Jump to content
JamesYellen

The Bitcoin thread

Recommended Posts

I'm a noob around here so please excuse my ignorance.

 

Are you refering to a crash in the total transactions or the network value?

 

Sent from my E6853 using Platinum Wealth mobile app

 

Hey, welcome to the forum.

 

I'm refering to a crash in the bitcoin price. I think crash is the wrong word, a correction in price is a better description.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@BitcoinZAR let us say that graph is correct and the Bitcoin price will head for a correction in the coming weeks. Will it be wise to rather hold onto my ethereums and wait for that correction?

 

In other words, if the Bitcoin price crashes/corrects will ethereum remain strong?

 

Lets say I am sitting with 100 Ethereums and I want to buy Bitcoin, I am thinking now perhaps I should wait for the correction later and then buy, but I am not sure what relation there is between the price of Bitcoin and the price of ethereum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@BitcoinZAR let us say that graph is correct and the Bitcoin price will head for a correction in the coming weeks. Will it be wise to rather hold onto my ethereums and wait for that correction?

 

In other words, if the Bitcoin price crashes/corrects will ethereum remain strong?

 

Lets say I am sitting with 100 Ethereums and I want to buy Bitcoin, I am thinking now perhaps I should wait for the correction later and then buy, but I am not sure what relation there is between the price of Bitcoin and the price of ethereum.

 

That chart is interesting....personally, I would just hold bitcoin, but that is because I am always trying to get more, and generally do arbitrage trades to get more bitcoin. When there has been price corrections in the past, I have just ridden them out, and bought or traded to gain more bitcoin. If I had sold at the top, it would have been great to buy at the bottom, I am no good at figuring that point out, so dont even try.

When bitcoin price drops, generally a lot of other coins drop in price too, but if the price is correcting and a huge drop in bitcoin price, I think the most likely next coin that people will try to move money to in order to save value will probably be Ethereum.

Waiting for the correction is something that might not happen for a while, nobody knows for sure....when the price goes up so fast, its almost bound to happen sooner or later....but this is bitcoin and strange things happen.

The chart shows a pattern that to me does not mean a lot....just because something happened in the past does not mean it will happen again.

The main divergence the graph is showing was end 2013 into 2014. At that point MtGox was the biggest and one of the only bitcoin exchanges that handled something like 70% of all the bitcoin trading. That exchange had a bot running on it that caused the price to go higher than it should have been, it also was extremely difficult to do a USD withdraw, so to get money out, you had to buy bitcoin which drove up the price. The reason the price crashed in 2014 was because MtGox suspended trading and closed their website.....so the most popular site doing 70% of all trading is suddenly gone....that made the price crash overnight.

This time, there is far more exchanges, a much larger group of people buying and selling, and the volatility is far less than back then, believe it or not.

If there is another correction like the graph suggests, it will probably be much smaller price wise, unless there is a huge event that is bad for bitcoin...(maybe November segiwt2x fork??)

If there is no huge event, then I dont think it will correct too much....the transactions are going down when the price goes up drastically because people start to hold more, going along for the ride, why spend something today that will be worth more tomorrow? People also might be doing a lot more trading on exchanges, which is not on the main blockchain, so would not be in the normal list of transactions.

New people buy, and often store bitcoin on the exchange...many people who have bitcoin have never even used bitcoin or sent some to a different bitcoin wallet.

There is a huge amount of new money in bitcoin which is a lot of people who are buying purely as an investment for the long term. There is more demand, and less bitcoin around, with a larger amount of people buying who are not spending.

So....although the chart is showing the divergence and likening it to the one in 2013 / 2014, I dont think that means there will be a crash because the charts says so.

The price has gone up significantly in the last few months, so I would not be surprised if there is a correction anyway. I it does correct in the same pattern, I would probably put it down to coincidence.

Then again, I am not that into technical analysis of charts, and am unlucky in calling tops and bottoms. That is why I do arbitrage, and hold, it works best for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does Luno take a 2% cut when buying as well as selling BTC?

 

If you are using the instant buy / sell option in the app, you pay a premium...I have tried to work it out in the past, sometimes it was around 3%, other times more, so I am not sure if it is a sliding percentage or how it really works.

 

If you instead create a buy or a sell order on the exchange, you will pay a maximum of 1% if your order matches an existing buy or sell order as you are then the 'taker' and the person with the original order is the 'maker'. The 'maker' will pay 0%, only the taker pays 1%.

 

So if you want to pay 0% fees, always make sure you are the maker and never the taker.....which is a bit hard sometimes when there is zero spread between the best buy and sell price, and you need to buy or sell bitcoin in a hurry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an investment forum I'd like to hear your opinions on what percentage you would be comfortable allocating to a risky asset class like cryptocurrencies?

 

Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum had this to say recently: 

vitalik.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regulation of cryptocurrencies must be considered, Bundesbank vice president Claudia Buch said, even though she does not believe they pose a threat to financial stability.

Buch said speculation on volatile virtual tokens does not pose a systemic threat, because it is not financed through credit, but she said regulators should look at introducing rules to protect consumers, given that such speculation could prove costly for investors.

 

“The role of crypto tokens in money laundering and criminal activity must also be closely examined,” Buch said.

 

“I don’t see a threat for financial stability at the moment, as the speculations are generally not financed with loans and the relevant markets are rather small.”

 

The issue of how to regulate cryptocurrencies is likely to be high on the agenda at a meeting of Group of 20 finance leaders in Argentina today and tomorrow.

 

International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde has urged governments and central banks to develop regulations for such assets to prevent them from becoming a new vehicle for money laundering and terrorist financing.

 

Japan has also urged its G20 partners to act on preventing cryptocurrencies from becoming a vehicle to finance general criminal activities.

 

- REUTERS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can't use those figures to predict the future. Our politicians will call it opportunistic but I'll stick to calling it biased. "Give me the data and tell me what you want it to show" type of thing. You are not factoring in things like sentiment, recent popularity, futures trading, regulation and many more things all of which drastically changed over the last 12 months. And what about the growth prospects if BTC suddenly becomes widely accepted as a currency and people actually start spending it? What happens when we have loadshedding again and SA miners cannot operate?

 

Tell you what, if you can guarantee me half of the 576,477% growth in the last 7 years over the next 10 years then we can talk. If you can't then the data in that table is pointless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are right, unfortunately nobody can predict the future price of bitcoin, but in a few years there is a very good chance it will be much higher than it is now. The new supply will continue to go down (-50% every 4 years), and (hopefully) the demand will continue to go up.

I wish there was a guarantee of the same gains, I am hoping for at least 1% of the last 7 years growth (5764%) in the next 10 years. Maybe it wont even be close to that, maybe it will be more. The risk / reward ratio looks pretty good when you use historical prices, since the past prices is the only thing we know for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hows everyone still doing with their bitcoin? Holding? Trading? Buying more? Out of the market?

I have been trading a lot with my trading stash, growing the bitcoin in the accounts. I have buy and sell orders set and also stop limit orders set at certain prices. On good days both the buy and sell orders have been hit with all the volatility :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been trading the wedge lately -- for the past 3 months, been really accurate so far.

 

With that said, I think we are now heading into the spiral territory, so I am out of the trades, sitting on cash.

 

I will put 20% in if we dip to $4900 and then 15% for every $300 below that.

 

(This is just trading, my long-term portfolio is still hodl for the moon, I did not sell any BTC yet.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×