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Bitcoin halving in May 2020


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Today marks 422 days approximately until the next bitcoin 'halving', where the amount of bitcoin that is able to be mined every day is cut in half forever. The approximate date will be 24 May 2020.

 

After previous bitcoin booms and busts in the hype cycle the uptick in the price has started to show improvement around 500 days before the halving. We are past that point, so I am hoping that there will start to be a slow steady increase in price again like there has been before. Lets see if history will repeat itself once again.

 

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, and this time the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins approximately every 10min in May 2020. Usually there are guys who anticipate the increased demand and the price increase that responds to the demand, who buy in advance so that they can sell when the real frenzy starts at a great profit.

I would bet that if things go like they have gone in the past, people will buy up bitcoin leading up to the halving, and might even dump a bunch before the actual date, before other guys get a chance to do the same thing.

 

Lets see how it all plays out...The price of bitcoin on 28 March 2019: $4098 (according to coin market cap)

EDIT:

1399524427_bitcoinbubblecheatsheet.thumb.png.63acff6edea83b994867ab1f68b2a59f.png

Edited by BitcoinZAR
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An interesting post that predicts a bitcoin price of $55,000 after the 2020 halving: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

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  • 2 weeks later...

So it's a bit more, like one more year before this bubble burst at last! So many people I know put serious money into it without any real facts about it. Why it costs that much anyway still ? I just play on Forex in some ways, but never will invest in this. I always think it will fall to 0 someday.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/16/2019 at 12:53 PM, 1Bolt said:

So it's a bit more, like one more year before this bubble burst at last! So many people I know put serious money into it without any real facts about it. Why it costs that much anyway still ? I just play on Forex in some ways, but never will invest in this. I always think it will fall to 0 someday.

 

There is a hype cycle because the supply gets cut in half, and people who trade know this and make money off the fact that the supply will be decreasing.
Think about it....You know for a fact that in 4 years time there will be 50% less bitcoin being mined each year, and then 4 years later, again 50% less, going on and on forever. Even if there is no more demand than there is today, when you cut the supply in half, but keep the same demand, the price should surely go up a lot. People who trade bitcoin know this, and they start buying up bitcoin in advance, with the purpose of selling it later at a big profit. This causes the hype cycle to repeat itself over and over, with higher highs, and higher low prices too.

It costs so much, because there is so much demand for it. If nobody wanted it, the price would be zero, but everyone wants it, and the demand is reflected in the price.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Some interesting stats and information.

1065647172_bitcoinpitch.thumb.png.c1eaf6ba18e0057cc80c60d259a711ce.png

A closer look at the way the bitcoin price is following the stock to flow model

 

1543529720_pathto1million.thumb.png.32343e128b7a545c32c2934789962ed9.png

 

A chart showing the bitcoin halving time periods and how the price has reacted in the past

 

1177882244_re-accumulationphase.thumb.png.907a64ebd033d2dedbcff9f3926dc593.png

 

Historical Bitcoin Prices in USD if you went back from today. Basically from todays price, if you have been in bitcoin for longer than 1 year, you are probably in profit. 2 years or longer, and the % profit starts to go up quite a bit:

 

2057833480_Screenshot_2019-05-19CoinDance.thumb.png.12eb2290d94157d3cffe49c88a805057.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

It has been just over a month since this thread started.

It seems that the price has started to go up and is approx 46% up over the last 30 days.

Today (01 June 2019) the price is around $8500

 

787145481_Screenshot_2019-06-018564USDBTC.thumb.png.007e638231c039c8d651ba17da683cf0.png

 

You can see over the last month the trend is up, but there has been some big jumps and drops in price along the way. Anything can happen in bitcoinland, it might still tank horribly short term, but I still think mostly sideways to upwards for the rest of the year overall, possibly increasing in volatility closer to the halving

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  • 3 weeks later...

Update: Posting here since the price passed $10k today (22 June 2019) that is over 180% in the last 6 months.
 

Of course the price could still go down....I still feel the price will range between $6k and $10k for the rest of the year....but now that $10 is breached, maybe I can raise the upper limit to $12k.

 

1383493915_Screenshot_2019-06-2210745USDBTC.thumb.png.58c928cbeb17aa76a00c53d3dd091fcf.png

 

The bigger picture is the long term price after the next halving event in May 2020. ETA is 21 May 2020, which is 334 days away. A lot can happen in that time, but I still feel it will be an upward trajectory. The months following the halving will be when the real exciting stuff happens...

 

I wrote an update to my post on bitcoin investing here: https://www.bitcoinzar.co.za/easy-bitcoin-investment-in-south-africa/

It shows how dollar cost averaging can be an easy way to accumulate bitcoin over time, which can increase in value.


One of the tools I used to demonstrate is available on this website: https://dcabtc.com/

It shows you how much value you could have made had you been dollar cost averaging already. Here is an example:

"Wow! Buying $50 of Bitcoin every month for 3 years starting 3 years ago would have turned $1,800 into $7,684 (+326%)"

 

 

 

Edited by BitcoinZAR
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  • 1 month later...

Just checking in....the price today is $10300 odd...I still expect it to range sideways then go upwards as the halving gets closer, with the real price increases coming later in next year if history repeats itself. I think bitcoin is going to be an amazing hedge against the Rand in the coming months as it goes up in value.

 

849256114_Screenshot_2019-07-2210306USDBTC.thumb.png.671e3e69ebe98be7a7f963cda7e4d661.png

 

I will probably only check in here again at the end of the year, I am traveling again for a few months in South America, but will check in if the price starts mooning 😎

 

320214593_Screenshot_2019-07-22Bitcoinstocktoflowlive.thumb.png.78e5f452e5ce97d010cef55342c462d1.png

 

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  • 3 months later...
  • 1 month later...

The year is ending and the bitcoin halving is still approaching. Like previous halving event, the price did indeed start to show an improvement, and it has continued to range mostly between 6-10k for most of the year which is what I was expecting.

With the halving event getting closer, I would expect some people to start front running the price up to the event, but the real 'chaos' and volatility to probably come in the months following. It all depends on how many people will try to use their knowledge of the halving as an advantage, to buy ahead of time.

 

Today the price is about $7430 which is around a 98% increase in value from today's date one year ago. Currently sitting at about R114852 on ice3x.com exchange and R114224 on Luno.

That is about a R10k price difference to the USD price, so there is some wiggle room for arbitrage, if you are buying on a US based exchange like Kraken and then selling on SA exchanges.

 

I am still accumulating now that I am back from my travels in South America, and still believe that the real big price increases will be in the months following the halving event, which is now predicted to be on 14 May 2020.

 

My "guestimate" is that IF there is another repeat of events like what has happened in the past halving event, the price change could improve again by 5 to 10 times what it is now, within the next 3 years.

 

Of course, if you want to benefit, you should only use money you are prepared to risk, as bitcoin is extremely high risk....but potential high reward.

 

110211714_Screenshot_2019-12-30Bitcoinstocktoflowlive.thumb.png.d2cba85b5f244fb929dbd6d823fd2834.png

 

So far the price is sticking close to where it is predicted to go if you are using the Stock to Flow model.

 

 

 

Edited by BitcoinZAR
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I wrote a new post about the 2020 halving this year for those who are interested. It explains more about the event.

 

If you are interested in knowing more about it, you can read more here: https://www.bitcoinzar.co.za/2020-bitcoin-halving/

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Bitcoin also seems to exhibit the characteristics of a veblen good at times. As the price increases, the demand increases along with it, its probably got a lot to do with FOMO by people who want to make money fast.

If you have bitcoin, and are interested in profiting off the hype cycle, make sure to have your stop-loss orders set so that you can ride the price up, but sell the moment the momentum changes and the price drops.

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  • 1 month later...

Today is now +- 65 days before the 3rd bitcoin halving. The price has still been ranging mostly between $6k and $10k for most of 2019 as anticipated.

Check out info on the halving ETA here: https://www.thehalvening.com/


Today the bitcoin price is $9118

 

1914122219_Screenshot_2020-03-079118USDBTC.thumb.png.be3f16b385b6c9aa0aff0388099478c9.png

 

When this thread was started in March 2019, the price was around $4000 so if you discount the volatility and sold now....that would be just over 100% gain in value since last year. There has of course been a couple of times when the price was much higher, and also lower.

 

The bitcoin hashrate is continuing to climb. The hashrate is the amount of computing power that is required to create new bitcoins, and therefore the cost to make bitcoins is rising with the hashrate.

 

385693240_Screenshot_2020-03-07Bitcoinstocktoflowlive(1).thumb.png.19a2bada90658709a1b65f07369160c1.png

 

When the amount of bitcoins that are mined each day is cut in half, then the cost of making these bitcoin is the same, but for half the amount, effectively doubling their price.

The price will jump, and there are also those that think the hashrate will drop, as some miners will no longer be profitable, and will simply stop mining.

 

In both the previous halving events, there was not much change immediately when the halving took place, with most of the price increase happening in the months following the halving, as you can see in this log chart of the bitcoin price below.

ESb7rS9UcAAEUva.thumb.png.f52bc1a080d8f7e59a7c78c6cc950ec7.png

 

If history repeats itself, which there is a pretty good probability of doing with bitcoin, then in the months following the next halving, there could be significant price increase in bitcoin.

 

1377959959_Screenshot_2020-03-07Bitcoinstocktoflowlive.thumb.png.38202de9fc1e9aba8f3b6cc1a5de4760.png

 

So far the bitcoin price is still following the predicted path as described in the stock to flow price model. If this model is true, then the price will be around 5 times what it is currently near the end of 2021....

 

 

 

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  • 8 months later...

Been a long time since posting here....the 3rd bitcoin halving happened on May 11, 2020, decreasing the amount of bitcoin mined every block by half, down to 6.25BTC per block now.
At first, like before and as expected, not much changed price wise, but after a sluggish start, it looks like the next cycle of the bitcoin bull run has begun after the halving trigger.

 

So I reckon we are still on track for a huge increase in price over the next year....hold on to your hair!

 

1480172964_Screenshot_2020-11-1616747USDBTC.thumb.png.263641e3a4d0c69d3c71c9f25110389f.png

 

Sitting at around 70% increase in USD value in the last 6months so far, things are just starting to heat up. The price right now is $16747, up from $4098 when this thread started. Its been very volatile....but those of us who just dollar cost average into bitcoin have seen good rewards.

I do know some traders who have lots a lot though, because they were trying to trade the volatility and made bad choices.

Going forward, everyone expects a bull run, followed by a decent pull back, before main bull run climaxing near end of next year.

 

707282608_Screenshot_2020-11-16BitcoinStocktoFlowModel-S2FLiveChart(PlanB).thumb.png.8bfbf43635310819c7775da426c72bcf.png

 

Bitcoin STILL appears to be following the Stock To Flow price prediction model above.

Wild predictions go from $50k per bitcoin, right up to $300k at the end of 2021....but so as long as its not down, I'll be happy.

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, e4et said:

Hi.

Whats your thoughts on Altcointrader ?

Its an exchange in S.A., there are a bunch of different ones. I dont personally use it, I mainly use ice3, luno and binance locally

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Been another month, and today bitcoin broke through $20k, reaching a new All Time High!

 

new-all-time-high.thumb.jpg.e1bf9ce146a0fa62427c2a808bcc93e8.jpg

 

So far the bitcoin price is still sticking pretty close to the predicted price using the S2F model.

 

2096791687_Screenshot_2020-12-16BitcoinStocktoFlowModel-S2FLiveChart(PlanB).thumb.png.3074344427b580dd4a6528104cdce123.png

 

If things continue on the same path, then 2021 is going to be an amazing year for bitcoin.

So far this year has already seen great returns for bitcoin holders. This thread started with bitcoin priced at around $4k, and today it has breached $20k. Not bad at all.

 

The last few months has seen some major players / institutions buying into bitcoin and finally joining in the party.

 

EG:

 

MicroStrategy first bought $250 million in bitcoin (BTC) on Aug. 11, followed by an additional $175 million worth of BTC one month later. Michael Saylor then purchased 2,574 bitcoins for $50.0 million in cash bringing the business intelligence company’s treasury holdings to approximately 40,824 bitcoins.

The $475 million of excess cash in the cryptocurrency, has pushed Nasdaq-listed MSTR shares higher for weeks

Now MicroStrategy has raised $650 million to buy even more bitcoin, bringing its total exposure to bitcoin to approx $1.1 billion.

 

DBS Bank of Singapore has officially announced the arrival of its digital assets exchange, with trading to start next week. The DBS Digital Exchange is 10% owned by Singapore’s SGX stock exchange. It will also provide tokenization of securities and other assets, as well as bank-grade custody for digital assets.

The new exchange will facilitate spot exchanges from fiat currencies to cryptocurrencies and vice versa

 

Ruffer Investment (UK) did a Massive Bitcoin Buy of $744M - "Ruffer's exposure to bitcoin currently totals around £550m, equivalent to around 2.7% of the firm's assets under management"

 

MassMutual, a U.S. life insurance company with $567 billion of assets under management announced that they purchased $100 million in Bitcoin for their general investment account. MassMutual noted that the investment is part of a broad strategy, with the goal of achieving “measured yet meaningful exposure to a growing economic aspect of our increasingly digital world."

 

PayPal is also launching a new service enabling users to buy, hold and sell cryptocurrency.
PayPal will enable cryptocurrency as a funding source for digital commerce at its 26 million merchants...

 

Square buys $50 million in bitcoin, and says cryptocurrency ‘aligns with company’s purpose’
"Square said Thursday it bought 4,709 bitcoins, worth approximately $50 million."
This represents about 1% of Square’s total assets as of the end of the second quarter of 2020.
“Square believes that cryptocurrency is an instrument of economic empowerment and provides a way for the world to participate in a global monetary system, which aligns with the company’s purpose,” the company said in a release.

 

Soooooooooooo what do all the 'big brains' in these companies know that the masses dont??

I think this year coming is going to be insane....lots of bitcoin press and the price will reach amazing new all time highs...but lets see how it all plays out.

 

Luckily we are all front running these big guys, and have been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin for ages....

 

 

 

Edited by BitcoinZAR
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  • 3 weeks later...

Happy New Year for 2021!!! Just checking in....

 

Bitcoin is still reaching new all time highs, and is hovering around the $29k mark which is around $25k higher than when this thread was started.

 

Yes, it is completely possible to still see a major pull back in price, but I am still of the mindset that over all, 2021 will be a massive year price wise.

 

Below is a 2yr chart of the price of bitcoin on Bitstamp exchange:

 

1670510238_Screenshot_2021-01-0129305USDBTC.thumb.png.c7db9f9a65020176f1d79f21c601e3be.png

 

Hope everyone has a great 2021!

 

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