Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
BitcoinZAR

Bitcoin halving in May 2020

Recommended Posts

Today marks 422 days approximately until the next bitcoin 'halving', where the amount of bitcoin that is able to be mined every day is cut in half forever. The approximate date will be 24 May 2020.

 

After previous bitcoin booms and busts in the hype cycle the uptick in the price has started to show improvement around 500 days before the halving. We are past that point, so I am hoping that there will start to be a slow steady increase in price again like there has been before. Lets see if history will repeat itself once again.

 

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, and this time the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins approximately every 10min in May 2020. Usually there are guys who anticipate the increased demand and the price increase that responds to the demand, who buy in advance so that they can sell when the real frenzy starts at a great profit.

I would bet that if things go like they have gone in the past, people will buy up bitcoin leading up to the halving, and might even dump a bunch before the actual date, before other guys get a chance to do the same thing.

 

Lets see how it all plays out...The price of bitcoin on 28 March 2019: $4098 (according to coin market cap)

EDIT:

1399524427_bitcoinbubblecheatsheet.thumb.png.63acff6edea83b994867ab1f68b2a59f.png

Edited by BitcoinZAR
  • Like 2

BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An interesting post that predicts a bitcoin price of $55,000 after the 2020 halving: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25


BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So it's a bit more, like one more year before this bubble burst at last! So many people I know put serious money into it without any real facts about it. Why it costs that much anyway still ? I just play on Forex in some ways, but never will invest in this. I always think it will fall to 0 someday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/16/2019 at 12:53 PM, 1Bolt said:

So it's a bit more, like one more year before this bubble burst at last! So many people I know put serious money into it without any real facts about it. Why it costs that much anyway still ? I just play on Forex in some ways, but never will invest in this. I always think it will fall to 0 someday.

 

There is a hype cycle because the supply gets cut in half, and people who trade know this and make money off the fact that the supply will be decreasing.
Think about it....You know for a fact that in 4 years time there will be 50% less bitcoin being mined each year, and then 4 years later, again 50% less, going on and on forever. Even if there is no more demand than there is today, when you cut the supply in half, but keep the same demand, the price should surely go up a lot. People who trade bitcoin know this, and they start buying up bitcoin in advance, with the purpose of selling it later at a big profit. This causes the hype cycle to repeat itself over and over, with higher highs, and higher low prices too.

It costs so much, because there is so much demand for it. If nobody wanted it, the price would be zero, but everyone wants it, and the demand is reflected in the price.

  • Like 1

BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some interesting stats and information.

1065647172_bitcoinpitch.thumb.png.c1eaf6ba18e0057cc80c60d259a711ce.png

A closer look at the way the bitcoin price is following the stock to flow model

 

1543529720_pathto1million.thumb.png.32343e128b7a545c32c2934789962ed9.png

 

A chart showing the bitcoin halving time periods and how the price has reacted in the past

 

1177882244_re-accumulationphase.thumb.png.907a64ebd033d2dedbcff9f3926dc593.png

 

Historical Bitcoin Prices in USD if you went back from today. Basically from todays price, if you have been in bitcoin for longer than 1 year, you are probably in profit. 2 years or longer, and the % profit starts to go up quite a bit:

 

2057833480_Screenshot_2019-05-19CoinDance.thumb.png.12eb2290d94157d3cffe49c88a805057.png


BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It has been just over a month since this thread started.

It seems that the price has started to go up and is approx 46% up over the last 30 days.

Today (01 June 2019) the price is around $8500

 

787145481_Screenshot_2019-06-018564USDBTC.thumb.png.007e638231c039c8d651ba17da683cf0.png

 

You can see over the last month the trend is up, but there has been some big jumps and drops in price along the way. Anything can happen in bitcoinland, it might still tank horribly short term, but I still think mostly sideways to upwards for the rest of the year overall, possibly increasing in volatility closer to the halving


BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update: Posting here since the price passed $10k today (22 June 2019) that is over 180% in the last 6 months.
 

Of course the price could still go down....I still feel the price will range between $6k and $10k for the rest of the year....but now that $10 is breached, maybe I can raise the upper limit to $12k.

 

1383493915_Screenshot_2019-06-2210745USDBTC.thumb.png.58c928cbeb17aa76a00c53d3dd091fcf.png

 

The bigger picture is the long term price after the next halving event in May 2020. ETA is 21 May 2020, which is 334 days away. A lot can happen in that time, but I still feel it will be an upward trajectory. The months following the halving will be when the real exciting stuff happens...

 

I wrote an update to my post on bitcoin investing here: https://www.bitcoinzar.co.za/easy-bitcoin-investment-in-south-africa/

It shows how dollar cost averaging can be an easy way to accumulate bitcoin over time, which can increase in value.


One of the tools I used to demonstrate is available on this website: https://dcabtc.com/

It shows you how much value you could have made had you been dollar cost averaging already. Here is an example:

"Wow! Buying $50 of Bitcoin every month for 3 years starting 3 years ago would have turned $1,800 into $7,684 (+326%)"

 

 

 

Edited by BitcoinZAR
  • Like 1

BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just checking in....the price today is $10300 odd...I still expect it to range sideways then go upwards as the halving gets closer, with the real price increases coming later in next year if history repeats itself. I think bitcoin is going to be an amazing hedge against the Rand in the coming months as it goes up in value.

 

849256114_Screenshot_2019-07-2210306USDBTC.thumb.png.671e3e69ebe98be7a7f963cda7e4d661.png

 

I will probably only check in here again at the end of the year, I am traveling again for a few months in South America, but will check in if the price starts mooning 😎

 

320214593_Screenshot_2019-07-22Bitcoinstocktoflowlive.thumb.png.78e5f452e5ce97d010cef55342c462d1.png

 


BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The year is ending and the bitcoin halving is still approaching. Like previous halving event, the price did indeed start to show an improvement, and it has continued to range mostly between 6-10k for most of the year which is what I was expecting.

With the halving event getting closer, I would expect some people to start front running the price up to the event, but the real 'chaos' and volatility to probably come in the months following. It all depends on how many people will try to use their knowledge of the halving as an advantage, to buy ahead of time.

 

Today the price is about $7430 which is around a 98% increase in value from today's date one year ago. Currently sitting at about R114852 on ice3x.com exchange and R114224 on Luno.

That is about a R10k price difference to the USD price, so there is some wiggle room for arbitrage, if you are buying on a US based exchange like Kraken and then selling on SA exchanges.

 

I am still accumulating now that I am back from my travels in South America, and still believe that the real big price increases will be in the months following the halving event, which is now predicted to be on 14 May 2020.

 

My "guestimate" is that IF there is another repeat of events like what has happened in the past halving event, the price change could improve again by 5 to 10 times what it is now, within the next 3 years.

 

Of course, if you want to benefit, you should only use money you are prepared to risk, as bitcoin is extremely high risk....but potential high reward.

 

110211714_Screenshot_2019-12-30Bitcoinstocktoflowlive.thumb.png.d2cba85b5f244fb929dbd6d823fd2834.png

 

So far the price is sticking close to where it is predicted to go if you are using the Stock to Flow model.

 

 

 

Edited by BitcoinZAR
  • Like 1

BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wrote a new post about the 2020 halving this year for those who are interested. It explains more about the event.

 

If you are interested in knowing more about it, you can read more here: https://www.bitcoinzar.co.za/2020-bitcoin-halving/


BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does it mean the price goes up, down or no impact? That's all I really want to know.

 

EDIT



How does the halving event affect the bitcoin price?

TLDR: Number Go Up!

 

Got it!


IQ Test

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bitcoin also seems to exhibit the characteristics of a veblen good at times. As the price increases, the demand increases along with it, its probably got a lot to do with FOMO by people who want to make money fast.

If you have bitcoin, and are interested in profiting off the hype cycle, make sure to have your stop-loss orders set so that you can ride the price up, but sell the moment the momentum changes and the price drops.


BitcoinZAR - Bitcoin South Africa community1lhxytq.pngLearn about bitcoin at https://www.bitcoinzar.co.zaJoin us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/bitcoinzarFollow us on twitter on https://twitter.com/bitcoinzar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...