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SaurusDNA

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Everything posted by SaurusDNA

  1. So, this is what I'm going to do in 2019: My Tax free investment portfolio for 2019: I'm going to continue to add R2750 monthly to my TFIA. I currently have the following portfolio, and will continue in the same proportions: Local ETFs (50%): CTOP50 15% DIVTRX 10% PTXTEN 15% STXQUA 10% Global ETFs (50%): ASHGEQ 10% GLODIV 10% GLPROP 10% STXEMG 10% SYG4IR 10% My stocks for 2019: All extra monthly money above my TFIA, I usually put into stocks. I will continue doing so in the following stocks: CML (Coronation) 14.3% CPI (Capitec) 14.3% DCP (Dis-Chem) 14.3% DSY (Discovery) 14.3% L4L (Long for Life) 14.3% MRP (Mr. Price) 14.3% SHP (Shoprite) 14.3%
  2. Investing is very different to trading. Selling and buying long-term investments is not generally considered a good idea - the costs of buying and selling are high, taxes come into effect when selling, and timing the market is near impossible. If, like me, you also want to take advantage of the short-term movements in the market, better to open a separate trading account for that purpose and keep your long-term investments as buy-and-hold. As the age old long-term investment advice goes: "It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market." My strategy to maximize gains from shorter-term movements (in my long-term investments) is to plan at the beginning of the year what I'm going to invest for the year. Then, each month, I buy what is cheap and then just hold forever. So, if the rand is strong, I buy my global ETFs, so that when the Rand weakens, I get further gains from the exchange rate. When the Rand is weak, I buy my local ETFs. Similarly, I buy my ETFs when they are at a low. But I never sell!!! For example, I bought all my 2019 PTXTENs already since it is at a 52 week low. NB: Note, however, that this strategy works for ETFs that are intended for long term investment, where the ETF is diversified. It does not work for single stocks, since a 52-week low in stocks may indicate weak financials or other reason. Buying the low in the long term is only really suitable for ETFs or unit trusts, not for single stocks!!!
  3. Hi e4et That's a pretty solid core portfolio. A few thoughts though... Your 55% global ETFs, I'd keep exactly in the percentages they're in - 40% world and 15% US feels well diversified. No criticism here. Your local ratios might do with a little tweaking in my opinion though. In a bull market, momentum shares thrive (like Satrix Top 40, SWIX Top 40 and CTOP50). In a bear market such as we had in 2018, value/quality shares do better (like Satrix Divi and STXQUA). This is why your Divi ETF is doing much better (or much less badly, to be precise) than your other ETFs (that's of course putting aside the World ETF which is up because of the weak Rand). However, when the JSE starts going up again, you may miss out on the rapid growth that momentum shares usually experience. In my opinion, now would be the ideal time to even out your local shares ratio and go half value (Satrix Divi (STXDIV)) and half momentum (like Coreshares top 50 (CTOP50)), since momentum ETFs are really cheap at the moment. My biggest concern is that SWIX T40 is 28% Naspers at the moment and that percentage is getting bigger and bigger. With the uncertainty in Tencent at the moment, the future of Naspers is unclear. Fortunately you only have 15% in SWIX T40 at the moment, but I wouldn't invest more in SWIX if I could avoid it. What I feel you should have instead of SWIX top 40 is a well rounded local core momentum ETF that doesn't have excessive Naspers exposure. Due to your already high exposure in Naspers, I'd go for the Coreshares top 50 ETF (CTOP50) as it is capped at 10% in any one company, limiting further exposure to Naspers. If it were me, I'd keep your current portfolio as it is and use the 3k to buy CTOP50. After that, I wouldn't buy more SWIX T40 (rather continue buying CTOP50) but maybe keep the SWIX anyway as it is a small enough percentage of your portfolio to warrant the risk and it may shine if Naspers recovers. Then in the long run, try and get your portfolio to something like: Local (45%): CTOP50: 20% STXDIV: 20% SWIX Top 40: 5% Global (55%): Sygnia MSCI US: 15% Sygnia MSCI World: 40% In summary, the only real long term changes I'd make is to eventually move away from the SWIX Top 40 and replace this with a capped local core ETF like CTOP50 (which is much better balanced and much safer), and then drop your Satrix Divi to only half of your local exposure.
  4. I've been using Takealot for years and never had a problem with them. I always use delivery and their delivery service is excellent. They always send an sms to say exactly which day wish to come and then the courier phones you to find out what time you'll be home. Delivery is always with plus or minus one hour of the agreed-upon time. Plus, their online tracking system is excellent. For delivery, I'd give them 10/10. Also, they're not fussy with returns or cancellations. Last month I accidentally bought an item that I already had and just before delivery, I noticed my mistake and wanted to cancel the item. I called their helpline and they cancelled the order immediately and without question and credited my account with the amount.
  5. PTXTEN is looking extremely attractive at the moment. With an 8.61% dividend yield for the past year (probably will be over 10% next year now that the price per units has dropped so much this year), this means you'll be scoring at least a 10% return on this ETF even if the price stays flat. If the market recovers and we get double digit growth again next year, it's possible we might even be getting a 25% - 30% return on this ETF next year. I've bought quite a bit of PTXTEN in the past two months. Also look at bond ETFs, which give you more flexibility than a two year fixed bond. The NFGOVI bond ETF in particular has done well this year with a 7.61% growth so far. But as long as PTXTEN doesn't drop further, its dividends are still better. Of course, there's also the chance it will continue to drop, whereas bonds or bond ETFs are a safe bet.
  6. Only new deposits from outside the account to inside the account contribute towards the limit. Anything that happens within the account doesn't count towards the 33K limit. This means you can reinvest dividends, buy and sell ETFs as you wish within the account - change back and forth between Cash and ETFs etc, as long as you don't withdraw them from the account. None of these affect the limit. So basically, it's only brand new deposits into the account from outside the account that contribute to the limit.
  7. I would wait. The market is at a 52 week low and INDI, for example, is down 25%. I'd hang on to what I have for now, and start balancing it out by only buying those that you have too little of.
  8. Hi Taurus and welcome to the forum. Disclaimer - I'm not a financial adviser - just a forum member with a few years of self-study and experience who invests and trades on the JSE, and the following discussion is based merely on my own observations and opinions. Yes, you have too many ETFs. It's not so much the number though, but rather that you have some that track exactly the same index/companies which duplicates your costs and skews your perceived exposure. A few observations: 1. A massive chunk of your investment is indirectly invested in a single company - namely Naspers. The Satrix Indi, Top 40 and RAFI are basically all investing in exactly the same few companies, but in differing percentages. The Indi is largely Naspers, which has historically performed exceptionally well, but now that the fundamentals of TenCent (of which Naspers owns 30%) has changed, the future may not be anywhere as near as attractive. I'd definitely be nervous with such a big percentage of my portfolio in Indi (plus, it's never a good idea to have such a big chunk of a portfolio in a single sector). If it were me, I'd combine all three of these into Satrix 40. 2. The Satrix S&P 500 and the Sygnia Itrix MSCI World are pretty much the same thing with a tiny bit of extra emerging market exposure in the MSCI world ETF. This is duplication and skews your exposure. 3. If you're looking for diversification in property, I'd go at least 20% property (10% local property (PTXTEN) and 10% offshore property (GLPROP)), since it's a different asset class and doesn't necessarily correlate to stocks. If the stock market crashes, these may very well shine. In fact, in the long term, property has always done well. 4. Ashburton Government bonds - a different asset class which is good for diversification but in the long run doesn't do as well as equities. Having these in your portfolio depends on your risk tolerance - these are much safer than stocks, but underperform in the long run (longer than 10 years). If you want diversification with bonds, go at least 10% bonds. Otherwise, it just doesn't add any value to your portfolio, because at 2% of your portfolio, the purpose of this asset class (risk reduction) simply isn't significant and you may as well put it in something higher risk with better potential returns. 5. Sygnia Japan and Eurostoxx: These are already covered in MSCI world. The combination of S&P500, Japan and Euro is pretty much what MSCI world has done for you anyway - you're just duplicating the Sygnia MSCI world ETF and splitting it up into it's components. All you get by having all of these is more costs and a skewed sense of diversification. Why not just combine all of these into MSCI world? 6. Nasdaq and Sygnia 4IR: I personally like tech shares and I think these will do well. Personally, I'd buy more than your 2% in tech - maybe 5-10%. 7. Satrix Quality: I love this ETF. The companies in this portfolio are fantastic with amazing fundamentals. The dividends from this ETF are also extremely attractive. 8. Satrix Fini: This sector is already very well represented in the top 40. Just more exposure to the same thing. NB: Your current exposure to the local Top 40 is 68% of your portfolio (26.14% Indi + 20.32% T40 + 12.03% RAFI + 9.07% Fini, which all have the same companies, especially Naspers, which is more than 20% in your case) This is the whole point - you think you're diversifying, but you're not! If it were up to me, and you asked me to re-balance your portfolio using your selection of ETFs, I'd sell INDI, RAFI, FINI, S&P500, Japan, EuroStox, and combine a whole lot of your ETFs to buy: 60 % Core Shares (Local and Global): STX40 - 20% STXQUA - 10% SYGWD - 20% GLODIV - 10% 20% Property (Local and Global): PTXTEN - 10% GLPROP - 10% 10% High-risk but high potential tech shares: STXNDQ and/or SYG4IR - 10% 10% bonds (If your proposed investment period is less than 10 years) or better still, buy 10% in emerging markets (STXEMG) instead. ASHWGB - 10% (Alternatively, rather than bonds, I'd use this 10% to buy emerging markets in the form of STXEMG, which has exposure to China, Brics countries etc. - lots and lots of long term potential).
  9. Will it be listed separately or does it fall under DSY?
  10. My boys want to ask Santa for a gaming console for Christmas. One says they should ask for a Nintendo switch, but the other says they should ask for an XBOX one. They are currently 8 and 5 years old. Which is better and why?
  11. Yes, with stop losses and take profit, you can choose fixed or trailing, and set your limits as the stop losses/take profits trigger. You can also do a partial sell/buy if the trigger is hit. You can also choose between an alert or an action on a trigger. Here's the interface for a fixed stop. The trailing stop is similar, and also allows partial sales.
  12. I use Standard Bank Online Share Trading. It's a bit expensive but the resources and graphing software is second to none. I'm very happy with it. Some features of the R160 per month Viewpoint package: Live prices (no delay) always. Specialist graphing software with all the indicators built in (see an example screen capture below) Instant one-click buy and sell. Research, fundamental analysis and professional opinions. Live SENS news feed. And that's just the beginning!
  13. Yes, there's a problem with the website. Only the "Quick Reply" box works. If you reply to a post, it just deletes your text and only posts the original post you are replying two. It's been this way for a few weeks now, but I had no idea how to report it.
  14. STXWDM is basically ASHGEQ without the emerging markets part. So yes, I wouldn't do both. STXNDQ is sector-specific which means it has much greater risk (and of course potential reward) than your core shares. However, depending how much tolerance you have for risk, you may want to buy a slightly lower fraction of these than the core shares. I actually decided to do SYG4IR (Asian tech stocks) instead of STXNDQ because I don't want too much of my portfolio in US tech shares (many of these are already in the other ETFs that I have). But it's a toss-up between the two - I can't say that one is better than the other - it all depends if you have greater faith in American or Asian markets in the long run. Something else you may consider is a consistent high-dividend stocks ETF as well (such as GLODIV), because these are the ones that thrive in a bear market (have a look at the performance of GLODIV this year, for example - up 25% or so), and maybe even some property to be really well diversified. The global ETF part of my own portfolio is as follows: ASHGEQ: 22% GLODIV: 22% GLPROP: 22% STXEMG: 22% SYG4IR: 12%
  15. If I had to buy only one global ETF, it would be ASHGEQ. I like that it has a little more emerging market exposure than the others, which in the long term has more potential for growth, in my opinion.
  16. I'd definitely add some STXQUA. It's had a bit of a rough year, particularly because of TBS and AVI, but the plus side is that it's cheap at the moment. In a bearish market, high dividend stocks almost always outperform momentum stocks, and STXQUA is full of high dividend companies, so if the fears of recession come true, the STXQUA should shine. Plus, it's got SLM, TRU and CML as major components, and these three are set to skyrocket, in my opinion. I've got 11% of my ETF portfolio in STXQUA, and despite its recent slide, it's still my favourite ETF due to its amazing fundamentals. If I were you, I'd definitely go 10% STXQUA, and take that percentage from STXWDM or CTOP50 depending on how much local/offshore exposure you want. I'd keep your GLPROP, PTXTEM and STXEMG percentages exactly as is for now. These are being slaughtered at the moment, but if you're in it for the long haul, these should outperform the market average substantially. The only other change I might suggest is buying some GLODIV (take the percentage from STXWDM) to balance the global quality/value ETF (GLODIV) against your momentum ETF (STXWDM). In a bullish global market, STXWDM should excel, but if the market goes bearish, GLODIV should do much better.
  17. Hi Kim Welcome to the forum. There are a lot of knowledgeable people on this site and I'm sure you'll have many fruitful discussions here. Mark
  18. Question 1: Until 31 December 2017, the Coreshares PropTrax 10 ETF (PTXTEN) was (as far as I can recall) the second best performing ETF in South Africa over the 10 year period, second only to STXIND. Come 1 January 2018, within a few weeks, the ETF promptly lost 30% of its value. This means the ETF is probably the cheapest it has ever been and in the long run, I think it is probably the best buy as far as local property ETFs go at the moment. That being said, I don't see it gaining much in the short term, especially with the uncertainty over the land issue. However, long-term, I still consider it to be an excellent buy. At the moment I have 11% of my TFIA in PTXTEN and still buying my R300 of PTXTEN every month (Rand-cost averaging this ETF). Also, because it's so cheap, yields are very high at the moment making it an excellent choice for income. Question 2: I wouldn't do a specific REIT, reason being that the property recovery may take several years, and the risk of owning one company for that long becomes huge. I'd much rather buy the index, as there is no way of knowing if any one company will outperform the index or not in the long term. PTXTEN is an equal-weighted ETF holding 10% of each of the listed property Top 10 with an average annual yield of between 7% and 8% over the past 10 years. This would certainly be my choice as far as property investments go.
  19. I've changed my investments quite a bit since the beginning of the year because of the poor performance of the JSE - I've focused more on small cap since these seem to be less battered by news and market sentiment than large and mid-cap shares and more about fundamentals. So my new investment portfolio has four small cap, two mid-cap and two Top-40 stocks at equal weights: CLS Clicks CPI Capitec DCP Dis-Chem DSY Discovery ELI Ellies L4L Long 4 Life PPC PPC Cement SRE Sirius Still not doing great though. My ETFs are doing much better.
  20. "plc" stands for "public listed company" which is the British equivalent of our "pty ltd" company. Mondi plc (MNP) is listed on the London stock exchange with a secondary listing in South Africa. Mondi Limited (MND) is listed on the JSE only. The two are basically identical and the dividend payout of the two is identical. However, the dividend yield of MND is slightly higher than MNP because of its marginally cheaper share price. Thus, MND is the better buy of the two. An excellent company, by the way - It's in my top 10 long term investment companies - one of those "hold for life" type companies. Excellent choice, in my opinion.
  21. Netfix is so much better than DSTV, at 10% of the cost! I don't see DSTV surviving another 5 years.
  22. I'm with SA Home Loans. Paying 10.1% at the moment. I tried ABSA and Standard Bank (my own bank) but neither were interested in giving me a home loan since my wife has her own business and is not salaried. FNB refused as well saying they only do home loans for clients. Nedbank and SA Home Loans made me an offer but SA Home loans had the better interest rate, so I went with them.
  23. Yes, in fact, the worse the economy gets, the more people drink. Distell should be called a hedge fund! :-)
  24. What a month - I don't think my stocks portfolio has ever been worse! I guess I should keep telling myself to keep buying because these shares are now on sale, but it takes so much strength to hold on and not panic sell, knowing that these are good stocks and will pay off in the long run!
  25. Yeah, but it costs an arm and a leg - R109 per month and roughly R135 per transaction. The fees statement each month is like reading a horror novel. That being said, they do have everything a trader/investor could ever want in terms of resources.
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