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Everything posted by Noobly

  1. South Africa’s rand is most vulnerable to the rise in U.S. Treasury rates among its emerging-market peers, according to Morgan Stanley, which predicts further weakness for the battered currency as the country’s finances deteriorate. The rand may decline about 6 percent to 15.50 per dollar in the run-up to the medium-term budget statement on Oct. 24, Morgan Stanley strategists including Min Dai wrote in a report. Investors will watch the budget update for signs of fiscal slippage as sluggish economic growth curbs tax revenue. “We remain convinced that South Africa will underperform into the medium-term budget update,” the strategists said. With foreign investors holding about 40 percent of the government’s rand-denominated bonds, “we believe that South Africa is the most vulnerable country in the current environment,” they wrote. The rand slumped 2 percent on Wednesday as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to the highest level since 2011, attracting money to the dollar and damping appetite for riskier assets. The currency extended its decline on Thursday, weakening 0.5 percent to 14.7190 per dollar by 2:37 p.m. in Johannesburg. The probability of the rand hitting 15.50 by Oct. 24 is 25 percent, according to Bloomberg’s forecast model. Foreign investors have sold a net 55.7 billion rand ($3.8 billion) of South African bonds this year, according to JSE data, with the sell-off gathering momentum since the beginning of the second quarter. Source: Bloomberg
  2. Government has thrown its weight behind renewable energy in the new integrated resources plan (IRP). Minister of Energy Jeff Radebe on Monday gazetted the long-awaited IRP. Radebe had met with the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac) on Friday to finalise the IRP. The policy outlines South Africa’s electricity plan given the demand outlook up to 2030, Radebe explained. The plan will see no increase in use of nuclear energy up until the year 2030, Radebe confirmed. There will be detailed technical analysis to see how much may be needed post 2030- up until 2050, he said. “Up until 2030 there is no envisaged increase.” During the briefing Radebe explained that electricity demand on the grid has been declining on an annual basis. “For the financial year ending March 2018 the actual total electricity consumed is about 30% less than what was projected in IRP 2010,” said Radebe. Further Eskom’s existing generation plant performance is not at expected levels. Plant availability is below the IRP 2010 assumptions of 80% and above, the minister said. The new IRP has taken into account the changing electricity demand and technology costs have been updated, and considerations were made on the constraints to renewables. The recommended plan uses the least cost plan as a starting point, without constraints to renewable energy, Radebe said. It includes coal, hydro power, existing PV (photovoltaic), wind and gas. Additional capacity up until 2030 is 1 000 MW from coal, 2 500 MW from hydro, 5 670 MW from PV, 8 100 MW from wind and 8 100 MW from gas. This brings the total installed capacity by 2030 to 34 000 MW coal (or 46% of total installed capacity), 1 860 MW nuclear (or 2.5%), 4 696 MW hydro (or 6%), 2 912 MW pump storage (or 4%), 7 958 MW PV (10%), 11 442 MW wind (15%), 600 MW concentrated solar power (1%) and 11 930 MW gas (16%). Radebe said that although coal installed capacity will be lower than the current installed base, it will still contribute 65% of energy volumes. Nuclear will only contribute about 4%. Responding to questions about the impact the IRP will have on the coal sector particularly jobs, Radebe said that the department has prepared a document for stakeholders “dealing with issues for a just transition”, as the plan is focused on renewable energy. The public has 60 days to comment on the IRP. Source: fin24
  3. Johannesburg - A senior official from South Africa's Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (DPCI) tried to quash former finance minister Mcebisi Jonas' case against the Gupta family, the commission of inquiry into state capture heard on Friday. Jonas said he received a call from the DPCI, more commonly known as the Hawks after he released a media statement detailing his meeting with Ajay Gupta, Duduzane Zuma and Fana Hlongwane where Ajay allegedly offered him a R600 million bribe to accept a promotion to finance minister. Jonas said he was with his attorney Max Boqwana at the meeting with the Hawks' major general Zinhle Mnonopi Mnonopi told him the case was a ''DA matter'', referring to o pposition party Democratic Alliance and inferring that the complaint was the anti-ANC-led government. ''She said this is a DA matter...you do not want to be on the side of the DA. There is no case so we will kill this case,'' said Jonas. According to the former deputy minister, Mnonopi wanted him to sign a statement that the case would be quashed because Jonas did not have the evidence, did not open a case with the police, and was not prepared to do so in future. Jonas said he refused to sign the letter and later sent the Hawks a legal statement on the details of his complaint against the Guptas. Earlier during proceedings, Jonas claimed fugitive Ajay Gupta threatened to kill him if he revealed information about his meeting with the Guptas. Jonas described the full details of the October 2015 meeting at the Gupta family's Saxonwold compound in Johannesburg. He said he had been requested by former president Jacob Zuma's son Duduzane to a meeting, without being given the details. Duduzane then suggested the two go and talk somewhere private and the venue turned out to be the Gupta compound. Businessman Fana Hlongwane joined them first before Ajay Gupta later walked into the room. ''He did not greet (me) and just started talking like a radio. He said the old man [Jacob Zuma] likes me," Jonas told the inquiry. "Duduzane and Hlongwane remained quiet as if they did not exist. Mr Gupta told me they have intelligence on me, and that I work with Gwede Mantashe [then secretary general of the ruling ANC party] and Zweli Mkhize [former ANC treasurer] and that was not good because they were not good...they were bad guys." "He said they called me to that meeting to check me out since the old man likes me so much," Jonas added. Gupta then told him that Nhlanhla Nene would be fired as finance minister and Jonas would get the post if he agreed. Gupta offered him R600 million to ''stash away in any account'' or bank in Dubai. Jonas said he was offered a pre-payment of R600 000 on the spot by Gupta as he stood up to leave for a flight to Cape Town, but said he did not want the money. As he walked out, Gupta followed, asking him: "'Do you know who you are dealing with? You think this is illegal? It is legal...look at the moment, we make R6 billion from state companies, we want to grow it to R8 billion. Treasury is a stumbling block to our growth.'' Ajay boasted that the Gupta family worked with former Eskom boss Brian Molefe and former public enterprises minister Lynne Brown and had made both ''very rich.'' He then allegedly threatened Jonas against reporting the meeting. ''This meeting did not happen hey...you say anything to anyone if you suggest (this) meeting occurred, we will kill you,'' Gupta allegedly told Jonas. Source: OL
  4. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    That sucks... I hope all is still well (I have a large holding in them.)
  5. 1. At a media briefing last night, the US State Department commented on US President Donald Trump’s concerns on land expropriation, expressed in a tweet yesterday. “The expropriation of land without compensation ... would risk sending South Africa down the wrong path. We continue to encourage a peaceful and transparent public debate about what we consider to be a very important issue,” State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert said during the briefing. A journalist asked if the US government believed the South African policy appeared to be similar to the land grabs that had taken place in Zimbabwe. Nauert said the situations between the two countries were quite different. "It may be easy for some to try to draw a comparison, but there are very big differences. In Zimbabwe, we saw the government there squash civil society, shut down the media from doing their jobs in reporting and destroy an independent judiciary and we have not seen that happen in South Africa, so I think they are different situations altogether." The rand continues to take strain following the tweet, and was trading at R14.38/$ this morning. Trump's tweet drew harsh criticism from South African citizens and institutions alike, with the South African government claiming that Trump’s tweet sought to “divide our nation and reminds us of our colonial past”. Meanwhile, Trump warned that if he was impeached, the stock market would plummet. "I don’t know how you can impeach somebody who’s done a great job," Trump said in an interview. "I’ll tell you what, if I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash. I think everybody would be very poor. Because without this thinking you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe, in reverse." 2. Former deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas will take the stand today when the commission of inquiry into state capture resumes. 3. Woolworths reported a depressing set of results yesterday, which showed the negative impact of the company’s Australian ventures. It had to write off billions at its struggling Australian chain David Jones, contributing to a decline of almost 18% in its headline earnings. 4. Massmart, owner of Makro and Game, also saw its interim profit decline as South African households struggle to afford big-ticket items. “One of the economic realities of this consumer pressure is that people only have money for about three to five days of the month when they get paid,” Massmart CEO Guy Hayward told Reuters. Sales grew by less than 2%. 5. But Discovery is still seeing growth: its share price rallied late yesterday after it announced that its headline earnings for the past year should be up to 35% higher.
  6. Noobly

    Women pay more for cosmetics and clothing than men

    I wish these retailers can be held accountable.
  7. Noobly

    Personal Expense Trimming

    I also switched to Telkom from vodacom. Had a 40Mbps VDSL line and cut that back to 10Mbps so saving some cash there as well and then went from uncapped to capped. A big difference came by switching banks a year ago from Nedbank to capitec, seems me and James had the same ideas regarding phone bill and banks. Now all my money is being put into my TFSA, Tax-free savings accounts are probably the best-kept secret for building wealth. I doubt there's a better long-term savings option out there.
  8. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    Just me or does 2018 look like a terrible year for South Africa, actually since 2016 our JSE seems to be slaughtered.
  9. Noobly

    Recent listings - Distell (DGH) and Vivo (VVO)

    I don't see DGH on easyequities? EDIT: Sorry my mistake, EasyE defaults to a TOP40 view and not ALL Shares. I found them now - https://platform.easyequities.co.za/Equity/Details?ContractCode=EQU.ZA.DGH
  10. Noobly

    Recent listings - Distell (DGH) and Vivo (VVO)

    I am liking Distell, from what I read they are Amarula, 4th street, klipdrift etc. I can buy that, those are strong brands and SA loves them some alcohol.
  11. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    Steinhoff up 30% -- The greedy person in me is yelling buy this now they still have quality companies.
  12. Noobly

    Napkin Finance

    This is really cool! I liked the one on how to buy a house: https://napkinfinance.com/napkin/mortgages/
  13. Noobly

    Pembury Lifestyle Group (PEM)

    Well, this is a disaster... Link to tweet: https://twitter.com/SimonPB/status/1014033759358930944 PEM yearend is December, so results due end March .. 10 April they report some 'minor issues' and say results out by end April .. 2 May they promise trading update by 15 May and results soon after .. As of today, zip, nada, zero results .. Share is currently suspended #JSE
  14. Noobly

    The KAP share thread

    I own it, been my best stock to date.
  15. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    This does not look good. Capitec being investigated after all. Link to tweet: https://twitter.com/viceroyresearch/status/1014049698074615809
  16. Noobly

    JSE Stock picks for 2018

    We need someone to make us a 6-month graph, to see how our picks went, volunteers?
  17. Noobly

    Who has naspers shares?

    Do you guys still own Naspers, I am in two minds if I should buy more of them. (15 plus year investment horizon) - Just feel they are so big, how much bigger is possible in relation to other JSE stocks?
  18. Noobly

    Hello Everyone

    Hello and Welcome
  19. Noobly

    From Jannie Mouton, chairman of PSG Group

    He is my idol
  20. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    Conflicting day with PSG down 2%, but Telkom is up 2% - should I be happy or sad.
  21. Noobly

    Pembury Lifestyle Group (PEM)

    Not a good day for Pembury Lifestyle Group Ltd, what is going on?
  22. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    Top Movers Today Index Summary
  23. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    Top Movers Today Index Summary
  24. Noobly

    Stock Watch Thread

    Jip, won't touch them.
  25. Noobly

    What are you listening to right now?

    Red Hot Chilli Peppers - Latest Album