1 pointSo, this is what I'm going to do in 2019: My Tax free investment portfolio for 2019: I'm going to continue to add R2750 monthly to my TFIA. I currently have the following portfolio, and will continue in the same proportions: Local ETFs (50%): CTOP50 15% DIVTRX 10% PTXTEN 15% STXQUA 10% Global ETFs (50%): ASHGEQ 10% GLODIV 10% GLPROP 10% STXEMG 10% SYG4IR 10% My stocks for 2019: All extra monthly money above my TFIA, I usually put into stocks. I will continue doing so in the following stocks: CML (Coronation) 14.3% CPI (Capitec) 14.3% DCP (Dis-Chem) 14.3% DSY (Discovery) 14.3% L4L (Long for Life) 14.3% MRP (Mr. Price) 14.3% SHP (Shoprite) 14.3%
1 pointMy Reasons for my strategy: Local vs global: First, my thoughts on local vs global ETFs. For the last 20 odd-years, the Rand has averaged a depreciation against the Dollar of roughly -4% per year. The S&P500 has had roughly 6.8% growth, thus giving a total return of roughly 11% (including Rand effects) by investing offshore. The JSE, on the other hand, has performed at over 15% per annum for this period. Global returns are generally lower than local returns because inflation is lower globally than in RSA. Thus, even with the dropping Rand, local returns historically still trump global returns in the long run. That's why I'm happy with a 50%/50% split in global vs local ETFs. My ETFs - the good and the bad: CTOP50: The JSE has never been cheaper. It's P/E is good enough even to start being attractive to foreign investors. Also, I love that 10% cap in any one company. This ETF is a must. DIVTRX: If the bear market continues, high-dividend shares perform better. That's why I'm holding on to this one for now, but eventually (after the market starts to recover), I may sell this and buy CTOP50 with this money. PTXTEN: Different asset class - not correlated to the JSE. Property always does well in the long tern and is at a 52-week low. A steal at this price. STXQUA: I just love the companies in this ETF - such attractive fundamentals. I own this one simply because I believe in the companies that this ETF represents. ASHGEQ: Diversified global. Core ETF. GLODIV: A smart-beta ETF - its methodology may outperform the global all-share index in the long run, so a competitor for ASHGEQ. GLPROP: Global property. I'm not too sure about this one, as global property returns are not generally as good as local ones, even with the extra 4% per annum Rand depreciation. I may sell this one eventually. For now, though, with the uncertainty in the market, this is just to have a different asset class. STXEMG: Highest potential for growth over 25 years. Emerging markets fluctuate wildly but always outperform developed markets in the very long term. SYG4IR: I had to have some Tech shares, but I already have too much in the USA through my other ETFs, Thus, this gives my exposure to the newest and most exciting tech in Asia. If I didn't have this I would replace it with STXNDQ, but I just don't want too much USA at the moment. The USA has had it's longest bull market in history. How long can it continue? It might, but I prefer to be diversified. My shares - why I own/will continue to buy these ones: CML: Dividends of almost 10% per annum - that's better than cash even before growth! My favourite stock pick for 2019 at the moment. CPI: Continues to remain strong, even in the terrible 2018. DCP: Tough choice between either Dis-Chem or Clicks. But I didn't want two in the same sector, since the two are very well correlated. I just feel that since Dis-Chem is new and Clicks is already well established, Dis-Chem has more potential for growth between the two. DSY: Historically rock solid, and with Discovery Bank on the way, it looks even more attractive than its already dazzling history. L4L: Still holding on to the belief that this one will take off one day. A bit of a risk, but it may pay off. MRP: Had a bit of a dip, but recovering nicely. Cheap clothes of reasonable quality must do well in the long run. And with its competitors in the clothing department losing the plot (I'm thinking Woolworth and Edgars here), it just has to go up. SHP: The poor performance of this stock has been due to negative inflation of the food products on its shelf (the average prices of its shelf actually dropped in 2018), thus dropping its turnover (and profit). As food inflation is expected to rise in 2019 (also with drought predicted again) this should reverse the losses and lead to considerable gains. This share is also very cheap at the moment.
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