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Your opinion considering the current state of affairs
#1
So I finally broke even with my STXIND investment in my TFSA and sold it off which means my TFSA is currently made up of roughly equal parts foreign equity, local equity and cash.

My current thinking is to keep things as is since DBXWD is climbing nicely, DIVTRX is being hammered to death and the cash is earning 7% interest (0.02% per day). I can try wait for the one extreme (Zuma fired/stays and Rand soars/plummets) and buy some ETFs at a bargain.

...or I could stop timing the market and buy the cheaper ETFs no already.

Interested to hear your opinion or what you are doing at the moment.
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#2
My TFSA is currently just DbxWD so I will continue to buy it each month. After reading the E-book I want to split it up to add a bit of that NFEMOM I like how it works. So thinking now might be a good time to pick it up.

#3
Currently the only thing in my TFSA that is doing well is my STXIND. Two weeks ago is was so happy that my TFSA finally started showing a profit, then everything went red and STXIND went up. Currently STXIND is the only thing keeping my TFSA up, since I've got about 40% in there since last year.

I'm going to keep on buying the other ones the cheaper prices, just to get the average purchase price down, it has to turn eventually.

Coincidentally, does anyone know why if everything falls, STXIND goes the opposite way?

JSE Finance Forum Attachment - Filename: tfsa5.JPG   

#4
It's not exactly true that STXIND goes up when everything falls, but a lot of times it does, and all of those times it's Naspers. Naspers' market cap is ridiculously huge and gets a lot of income from offshore.
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#5
(04-06-2017, 08:20 AM)Outlook Wrote: My TFSA is currently just DbxWD so I will continue to buy it each month. After reading the E-book I want to split it up to add a bit of that NFEMOM I like how it works. So thinking now might be a good time to pick it up.

Tough choice between NFEMOM and DIVTRX in the TFSA
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#6
Currently I reshuffled my entire TFSA and it is now in line with the ebook so that I can practise what I preached. So far so good GLPROP starting to pick up. DbxWD will be solid and then NFEMOM is green. Nothing shining in my TFSA, but at least most is green which I think one should probably be thankful for given our current state of affairs.
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#7
The dual listed Rand hedges dominate JSE market cap whilst the more locally exposed industrials don't. If Rand is weak JSE goes up as dual lists get a R boosted earnings and people run for cover to the R hedges. When R gets oversold as it is now it strengthens and dual lists and JSE fall and industrials benefit. So it appears often they move opposite.

To be successful on JSE today you need to have a view on the Rand. http://www.sharenet.co.za/views/SA-TOP40...59bdde4789


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#8
(04-14-2017, 03:28 PM)Dwaine van Vuuren Wrote: The dual listed Rand hedges dominate JSE market cap whilst the more locally exposed industrials don't. If Rand is weak JSE goes up as dual lists get a R boosted earnings and people run for cover to the R hedges. When R gets oversold as it is now it strengthens and dual lists and JSE fall and industrials benefit. So it appears often they move opposite.

To be successful on JSE today you need to have a view on the Rand. http://www.sharenet.co.za/views/SA-TOP40...59bdde4789


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That's actually an interesting point about the Top40 being mostly offshore already. I have often wondered if I should sell my Satrix 40 unit trust and just double down on a DbxWD ETF, the reason I still have the Satrix Unit trust is because I also thought most of them are offshore earnings.

#9
(04-14-2017, 04:34 PM)Outlook Wrote: That's actually an interesting point about the Top40 being mostly offshore already. I have often wondered if I should sell my Satrix 40 unit trust and just double down on a DbxWD ETF, the reason I still have the Satrix Unit trust is because I also thought most of them are offshore earnings.

I have the same thinking here. Invest only in a world equity index tracker + local government bonds. See this link: http://monevator.com/why-a-total-world-e...-you-need/. No back testing though for our local marker, but the direction the world is heading, a world equity index tracker seems like the most logical choice and one can hold this fund 'forever'.

#10
(04-15-2017, 08:36 PM)Bogle Wrote: I have the same thinking here. Invest only in a world equity index tracker + local government bonds. See this link: http://monevator.com/why-a-total-world-e...-you-need/. No back testing though for our local marker, but the direction the world is heading, a world equity index tracker seems like the most logical choice and one can hold this fund 'forever'.

I just want to add on the above post. See attach the newfunds GOVI index(blue) vs  DBXWD(yellow) for the last year. I must say I like the negative correlation between the two.

Image(s)
JSE Finance Forum Attachment - Filename: nfgovi_dbxwd.png   

#11
(04-15-2017, 08:58 PM)Bogle Wrote: I just want to add on the above post. See attach the newfunds GOVI index(blue) vs  DBXWD(yellow) for the last year. I must say I like the negative correlation between the two.

That puts things into perspective actually, I'm really starting to rethink a large portion of what I believe especially when it comes to the DBXWD, look I own it I love(d) it, the whole ebook is structured around it, but there's no denying that we do have some worthy options locally that I'll need to consider going forward. I've been looking at those givi, mappsg and other ETFs and wonder what the cost/fees breakdown would be considering the DBXWD is one of the most expensive ETFs on the JSE if I am not mistaken.
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#12
DBXWD is "expensive" but not as expensive as the DBXUS and the other DBX ETFs.

You cannot compare bond ETFs to it. They have vastly different roles and serve completely different purposes in your portfolio.

MAPPSG does the allocation for you (75% equity, 10% inflation linked bonds, 10% government bonds and 5% cash). The equity part makes use of NFSWIX - make sure you understand it.

Back in the day the top 40 was heavy with resource shares so to combat it they decided developed SWIX (share weighted index). It solved the resource share issue by removing duel listed companies from the index (they're seen as one, holding and subsidiary companies alike if I'm not mistaken). It also only considers shares available to the public to invest in.

The problem? No share weighted cap and what exactly makes the amount of shares available to invest in by the public so special? And as a side effect: it stopped the top40 from being overweight on resource shares by making it overweight in industrial shares.

It's a shitty index imho. ABSA should swop it for NFEMOM or something else in the MAP ETFs.

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