Bitcoin: How long until mainstream adoption?
#1
How long until the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin?

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How long will the adoption reach out until you have mainstream adoption? 
Well let's look at the previous revolutions and money, in the sixteenth century there was this radical proposition to replace gold with gold certificates written on paper and if you think people find Bitcoin weird imagine the time when they told them Gold is no longer the money bits of paper are. 


Right, you got to be kidding so that idea was so radical it took four hundred years until it became broadly deployed in mainstream society. 


The next one in the 1950s was credit cards right and so with credit cards people were now told the pieces of paper that have the government seal on them are now pieces of plastic that have a company number on them and that's it, but don't worry you'll get paid eventually.


It took almost 50 years for that to become mainstream, you really started seeing it around the middle of the 1980s and I remember as recently as the early 90s in most places in Europe you could have paid with a credit card anywhere right I remember coming back from the United Kingdom as a student and visiting Greece visiting Italy visiting Spain with my brand-new Visa debit card and boy was that a disaster because I couldn't use it anywhere.


So 400 years for the first,150 years for the second one.


I think we can do Bitcoin in less than 15 maybe 20 we're going to see broad adoption of a form of digital money that will be based on a shared open borderless cryptographic ledger. Whether it's called Bitcoin or something else I don't know but it will be broadly based on those ideas. 


We're in a race and the reason we're in a race is because governments around the world are trying to ban cash and take us into a different digital currency system a digital currency system with complete surveillance where the government's and the banks are completely in control where when you go to the wrong protest participate in the political party they flip one bit in the database and you no longer exist as a person you are outside of the economic community bye-bye can't feed yourself good luck. 


I don't want that future so we'd better get our asses in gear and build some Bitcoin solutions faster but 15 years I think we can do it the good news is we don't need to build out the infrastructure the Internet is already there.


Okay so to be really popular and to be successful in mainstream it has to rise in value to match the capitalisation of Fiat that's not a cause that's an effect it adopts it gets adopted it rises in value it doesn't get adopted because it's risen in value it rises in value because it is adopted.


Yes, I do expect that the system of Bitcoin will be unbalanced, so the question was “do you think it's going to be unbalanced?” Bitcoin has a not very particularly good Gini coefficient and so what that means is that the Equality of ownership is quite diverted is not as diverse as it should be or it could be I think that's primarily because of the way it grew.


Any solution you know I'm not going to pass judgment because to me the idea here is that you have a system of wealth where people who took enormous risk on a completely untested technology because they saw the vision that this technology created will become rich which is a far better basis than my grandfather killed a hell of a lot more people than your grandfather which is the basis of wealth we have in our society today that is the truth now if Bitcoin goes to zero are you going to bail out the people who have a lot of Bitcoin I didn't think so, so they still run the risk all of us do who are invested anybody who's invested in in Bitcoin is running an enormous risk that they will lose their entire investments and whatever time we've invested into these technologies right could go away tomorrow right that's part of the risk no risk no reward and nobody's coming to bail out Bitcoin.


Right so from that perspective I think that's earned wealth in a way that is much more true from any other aspects of society so I think it's the most equal system no but I don't think Bitcoin is going to be the only system we create bitcoin is a testbed yeah sure lots of people may become rich on Bitcoin but there will be other cryptocurrencies there will be other decentralized Ledger's and broad adoption doesn't mean just Bitcoin it could be a completely different system that's built from scratch and much more equally distributed in fact if you think this is a big problem start writing the block change that will be more equally distributed and bring it to the world bitcoin already gives you the recipe I'll take you.
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